<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-1042</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Contaduría y administración]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Contad. Adm]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-1042</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Contaduría y Administración]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-10422024000400114</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fca.24488410e.2024.5092</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Demanda de turistas internacionales hacia México: construcción de un modelo predictivo]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[International tourist inflow in Mexico; Construction of a predictive model]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodriguez-Marin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mauro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>69</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-10422024000400114&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-10422024000400114&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-10422024000400114&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo examina el impacto del turismo internacional en México y presenta un modelo predictivo para estimar las llegadas de turistas internacionales durante el periodo 2023-2025. A partir de datos mensuales proporcionados por el Banco de México (BANXICO), se emplea el método Box-Jenkins, determinando que un modelo ARIMA se ajusta de manera óptima a los datos. Los resultados desvelan patrones de demanda notables y subrayan el efecto significativo de la pandemia en las tendencias turísticas. Luego de una notable disminución durante las fases más críticas de la pandemia, se evidencia una recuperación paulatina en las cifras de llegada de turistas. Estos descubrimientos son esenciales para el sector turístico mexicano, brindando insights valiosos para la planificación y decisiones estratégicas. El modelo sugerido puede ser una herramienta útil para los profesionales del marketing turístico, ayudándoles a diseñar estrategias más precisas y efectivas. Adicionalmente, este estudio contribuye, tanto desde una perspectiva empírica como metodológica, al ámbito turístico mexicano y posee el potencial de ser extrapolado y aplicado en contextos internacionales.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This article examines the impact of international tourism in Mexico and introduces a predictive model to estimate the arrivals of international tourists for the period 2023-2025. Using monthly data provided by the Bank of Mexico (BANXICO), the Box-Jenkins method is employed, determining that an ARIMA model optimally fits the data. The results reveal notable demand patterns and emphasize the significant effect of the pandemic on tourist trends. After a marked decline during the most critical phases of the pandemic, a gradual recovery in tourist arrival figures is evident. These findings are essential for the Mexican tourism sector, offering valuable insights for planning and strategic decision-making. The suggested model can be a useful tool for tourism marketing professionals, assisting them in designing more accurate and effective strategies. Additionally, this study contributes, both empirically and methodologically, to the Mexican tourism context and has the potential to be extrapolated and applied in international settings.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[turismo internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[demanda turística]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronósticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[international tourism]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[tourism demand]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasts]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARIMA]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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