<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-1042</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Contaduría y administración]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Contad. Adm]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-1042</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Contaduría y Administración]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-10422024000100108</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fca.24488410e.2024.5014</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Credit risk management analysis: An application of fuzzy theory to forecast the probability of default in a financial institution]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis de la gestión del riesgo de crédito: una aplicación de la teoría difusa para pronosticar la probabilidad de incumplimiento en una institución financiera]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina Reyes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Castro Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Judith Jazmin]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cruz Aké]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Salvador]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Queen Mary University of London  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Reino Unido</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>69</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-10422024000100108&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-10422024000100108&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-10422024000100108&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The aim of this research is to model the credit risk, estimating the impact of operational risk and customer features, using the fuzzy version of the LOGIT model. For this purpose, it proposes a Fuzzy Financial Risk Management Model, composed of a Credit score estimated with a Fuzzy LOGIT model and a Fuzzy Triangular Value-at-Risk adjustment. For this purpose, the probability of default of 3,746 commercial loans was predicted. The results show that the proposed methodology recognises the relationship between credit and operational risk better than traditional models. In conclusion, the proposed model provides an assessment of risk and measures it in terms of interest rate basis points. In addition, it provides the expected loss for three degrees of uncertainty. Therefore, the proposed methodology provides a suitable support for the design of credit policies in a financial institution.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El objetivo de esta investigación es modelar el riesgo de crédito, evaluando el impacto del riesgo opera- cional y características del cliente, utilizando la versión difusa del modelo LOGIT. Para ello, se propone un Modelo Difuso de Gestión del Riesgo Financiero, integrado por un score de Crédito estimado con un modelo LOGIT Difuso y una adaptación de Valor en Riesgo Triangular Difuso. Para ello se pronosticó la probabilidad de incumplimiento de 3,746 préstamos comerciales. Los resultados muestran que metodología propuesta reconoce mejor la relación entre el riesgo crediticio y operativo que los modelos tradicionales. En conclusión, el modelo propuesto permite evaluar el riesgo y medirlo en términos de puntos base de la tasa de interés. Además, de proporcionar la pérdida esperada para tres niveles de incertidumbre. Por lo que, la metodología propuesta puede ser buen un auxiliar para el diseño de políticas de crédito en una institución financiera. 2]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fuzzy statistics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[data analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fuzzy control]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[credit risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[operational risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estadística difusa]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[análisis de datos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[control difuso]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[riesgo de crédito]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[riesgo operativo]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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