<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-1042</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Contaduría y administración]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Contad. Adm]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-1042</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Contaduría y Administración]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-10422022000200015</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fca.24488410e.2022.3296</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Optimización del pago del IVA a través de un modelo de riesgo probabilístico para la planeación financiera]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Optimization of VAT payment through a probabilistic risk model for financial planning]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Montoya]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Arturo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García Cortez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David Ernesto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vargas Serrano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Sonora  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>67</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-10422022000200015&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-10422022000200015&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-10422022000200015&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Las pequeñas y medianas empresas (PYMES) tienen una responsabilidad fiscal muy importante, por lo que resulta de especial interés administrar el flujo de efectivo para optimizar el pago del Impuesto al Valor Agregado. En este trabajo se propone un modelo de análisis de costo-riesgo para determinar el impacto de una estrategia de planeación fiscal que considera la intervención de una línea de crédito. Se busca tomar una decisión que logre una combinación óptima entre costos y beneficios esperados, considerando el riesgo asociado a la ocurrencia de falta de liquidez. La propuesta considera minimizar la función de impacto total, la cual se define como la suma de la función de costo y la función de riesgo. La propuesta metodológica se ilustra con datos reales de una empresa mayorista ferretera en Hermosillo, Sonora, México. Además, se llevó a cabo un estudio de simulación para mostrar la pertinencia de la propuesta.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) have an important fiscal responsibility, so it is of special interest to reach an appropriate management of the cash flow, in order to optimize the payment of the Value Added Tax. In this work, a cost-risk analysis model is proposed to determine the impact of a fiscal planning strategy that considers the use of a credit line. The goal is to make a decision that achieves an optimal combination between costs and expected benefits, considering also the risk associated with the occurrence of lack of liquidity. This proposal is focused on the minimization of what is called the total impact function, defined as the sum of the cost and risk functions. The methodological proposal is illustrated with real data from a hardware wholesale company in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. A simulation study was carried out to show the applicability of this proposal.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[M10]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[M19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[construcción de modelos y estimación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[técnicas de optimización]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de programación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sistema dinámico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[generalidades]]></kwd>
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<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[model construction and estimation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[optimization techniques]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[programming models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dynamics analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[general]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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