<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-1042</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Contaduría y administración]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Contad. Adm]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-1042</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Contaduría y Administración]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-10422020000400011</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fca.24488410e.2020.2453</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Reversión a la media en las series de precios reales del petróleo en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mean reversion in Mexico´s real oil price series]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cruz Aranda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fernando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cabrera LLanos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Agustín]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Panamericana Centro de Regulación Energética y Economía del Desarrollo (CREED) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Panamericana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional Unidad Profesional Interdisciplinaria de Biotecnología ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>65</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-10422020000400011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-10422020000400011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-10422020000400011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El objetivo de este documento es mostrar la existencia de un patrón de reversión a la media en la serie de precios reales del petróleo exportado por México al continente Americano entre enero de 1999 y junio de 2017. Con ese fin adaptamos una ecuación en diferencias estocástica a la serie de precios de la variedad Maya para hacer pronósticos dentro y fuera de la muestra, con una ventana de seis y doce meses. Los principales resultados obtenidos muestran que, en efecto, hay una reversión a la media de largo plazo en los precios inicialmente supuestos como racionales. Otras pruebas estadísticas confirman que esta reversión a la media es persistente en virtud de que los shocks producidos sobre los precios reales no involucran cambios permanentes.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper aims at showing the existence of a mean reversion pattern in the series of real prices of oil exported by Mexico to the American Continent between January 1999 and June 2017. For this purpose we adapt a stochastic difference-equation to the series of prices of Maya variety to make forecasts in-and out of the sample, with a window of six and twelve months. The main results drawn from the best-fit model show that, in effect, there is a reversion to the long-term mean in prices initially assumed to be rational. Other statistical tests confirm that this reversion to the mean is persistent because the shocks produced on real prices do not involve permanent changes.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C01]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C13]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C65]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G12]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G23]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Precios de petróleo de México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Reversión a la media]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Hipótesis de mercados eficientes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Funciones de impulso respuesta]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico de precios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C01]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C13]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C65]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G12]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G23]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico&#8217;s oil-prices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mean reversion]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Efficient-market hypothesis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Impulse-response functions]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Price forecasting]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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