<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-1042</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Contaduría y administración]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Contad. Adm]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-1042</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Contaduría y Administración]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-10422015000600106</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.cya.2015.08.014</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Desequilibrios cambiarios y crisis: Canadá, México, Japón y Reino Unido vs dólar de EE.UU. (1994-2014)]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Exchange rate disequilibria integration and crisis: Canada, México, Japan and United Kingdom vs EE.UU. dollar (1994-2014)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sosa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miriam]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortiz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edgar]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A01">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2015</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2015</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>60</volume>
<fpage>106</fpage>
<lpage>127</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-10422015000600106&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-10422015000600106&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-10422015000600106&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Cambios en el comportamiento del tipo de cambio se reflejan en desviaciones en su equilibrio a largo plazo con otras divisas; dichas desviaciones disminuyen la confianza en una divisa local, así como en su valor, conllevando a severas devaluaciones o depreciaciones; en períodos de inestabilidad financiera los desequilibrios se intensifican ocasionando crisis tanto en el caso de economías desarrolladas como en el caso de los países emergentes. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar el comportamiento, determinación y relaciones de largo plazo del tipo de cambio de México, Canadá, Reino Unido y Japón en relación al dólar de EE.UU. Se resaltan algunos aspectos sobre integración y crisis porque la muestra incluye a los tres países miembros del TLCAN. Se aplica un modelo de precios flexibles (MPF). Como causas plausibles determinantes del tipo de cambio se consideran los cambios en los diferenciales de tres variables macroeconómicas clave locales y externas: producción industrial, el indicador de la base monetaria M3 y tasa de interés. El análisis econométrico incluye un modelo multifactorial, análisis de cointegración, análisis de causalidad de Granger, y la estimación del mecanismo de corrección de error (MCE), necesariamente aplicando un Vector Autorregresivo. Las series de estudio son mensuales y cubren el periodo de junio de 1994 a febrero 2014. Los resultados sugieren que el tipo de cambio está en general relacionado con crisis en las economías de Canadá, México, Japón y Reino Unido. No obstante, ha mantenido una relación de equilibrio a largo plazo respecto al dólar de EE.UU.; sus perturbaciones no han roto dicha relación.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Changes in exchange rate behavior derive in deviations from its long run equilibrium with other currencies; those deviations decrease confidence in a local currency, as well as in its value, leading to severe devaluations or depreciations; during periods of financial instability disequilibrium intensifies causing crisis, both in the case of developed and emerging economies. The objective of this work is analyzing the behavior, determination and long run relationships between exchange rates from Mexico, Canada. United Kingdom, Japan in relation to the dollar of the United States. Some integration and crisis aspects are stressed because the sample include the three members of NAFTA. A model of flexible prices (MFP) is applied. For plausible determinants of exchange rates are considered changes in the differentials of three key macroeconomic variables, local and foreign are used: industrial production, money supply M3, and interest rate. Econometric analysis includes a Multifactorial model, cointegration análisis, Granger causality analysis, and estimation of the error correction model (ECM), including a Vector Autorregressive Model. Monthly time series are used for the period June 1994 to February 2014. The empirical evidence suggests that exchange rates are generally associated with crisis in the economies of México, Canada, United Kingdom and Canada. Nevertheless, a long run equilibrium with respect to US dollar has been maintained; shocks from exchange rate have not broken that relationship.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Crisis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Exchange rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Currency disequilibria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Flexible prices model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Crisis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tipo de cambio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Desequilibrios cambiarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo de precios flexibles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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