<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672025000200005</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.01851667p.2025.332.91060</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Efectos potenciales en comercio y competitividad de un arancel a las exportaciones mexicanas en Estados Unidos]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Potential effects on trade and competitiveness of a tariff on Mexican exports to the United States]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortiz Velásquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Samuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Facultad de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>84</volume>
<numero>332</numero>
<fpage>5</fpage>
<lpage>34</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672025000200005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672025000200005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672025000200005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN El artículo analiza los efectos económicos en México de la política arancelaria de Donald Trump en Estados Unidos. Se presenta una revisión actualizada de la literatura teórica y empírica sobre el impacto de los aranceles en una economía globalizada. Además, se realiza un ejercicio estadístico para estimar los efectos inmediatos de un arancel ad valorem del 25% sobre las exportaciones producto por producto de México a Estados Unidos, evaluando su impacto en valor unitario de exportación (con y sin arancel) y competitividad internacional. El análisis se complementó con una discusión de los efectos potenciales para la inversión y el empleo en México. Los resultados sugieren que, en una economía globalizada, el costo del arancel sería absorbido principalmente por las empresas importadoras y los consumidores finales en Estados Unidos, lo que resultaría en incrementos en precios y en la pérdida de competitividad de la región de América del Norte frente a los países asiáticos. Para México, la amenaza de aranceles genera incertidumbre, frena la inversión y debilita el potencial del nearshoring.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT This article analyzes the economic effects of Donald Trump&#8217;s tariff policy in the United States on Mexico. It presents an updated review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of tariffs in a globalized economy. A statistical exercise is also conducted to estimate the immediate effects of a 25% ad valorem tariff on Mexican exports to the United States, product by product, assessing its impact on unit export value (with and without the tariff) and international competitiveness. The analysis is complemented by a discussion of the potential effects on investment and employment in Mexico. The results suggest that, in a globalized economy, the cost of the tariff would be absorbed primarily by importing companies and final consumers in the United States, resulting in price increases and a loss of competitiveness for the North American region vis-à-vis Asian countries. For Mexico, the threat of tariffs generates uncertainty, discourages investment, and weakens the potential for nearshoring.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[arancel ad valorem]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[especialización vertical]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[valor unitario de exportación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[competitividad internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[nearshoring]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Ad valorem tariff]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[vertical specialization]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[export unit value]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[international competitiveness]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[nearshoring]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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