<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672023000400098</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86496</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Thirlwall&#8217;s Law And New-Developmentalism: What Are The Limits For Long-Run Growth?]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Ley De Thirlwall y Nuevo Desarrollismo: ¿Cuáles Son Los Límites Para el Crecimiento a Largo Plazo?]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oreiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Luis]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade de Brasilia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>82</volume>
<numero>326</numero>
<fpage>98</fpage>
<lpage>126</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672023000400098&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672023000400098&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672023000400098&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The aim of this article is to argue that New-Developmentalism -understood as an approach to the deep determinants of economic development in which macroeconomic policy regime has a key role in explaining the long-term growth differentials among countries, notably middle-income countries- is not incompatible with Balance of Payments Constrained Growth models pioneered and developed by Professor Thirlwall, but can be considered an extension and improvement of such a class of models in order to incorporate structural change induced by exchange rate overvaluation as the main limit of long-run growth for middle-income dual economies, thereby explaining the so-called middle-income trap.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El objetivo de este artículo es argumentar que el nuevo desarrollismo -entendido como un enfoque de los determinantes profundos del desarrollo económico en el que el régimen de política macroeconómica tiene un papel clave en la explicación de los diferenciales de crecimiento a largo plazo entre los países, especialmente los países de ingresos medios- no es incompatible con los modelos de crecimiento restringido por la balanza de pagos iniciados por el profesor Thirlwall, sino que puede considerarse una extensión y mejora de esta clase de modelos para incorporar el cambio estructural inducido por la sobrevaluación del tipo de cambio como el principal límite del crecimiento a largo plazo para las economías duales de ingreso mediano, explicando así la llamada trampa del ingreso medio.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Anthony Thirlwall]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[real exchange rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[structural change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[O11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[O14]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[O24]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Anthony Thirlwall]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tipo de cambio real]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio estructural]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[O11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[O14]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[O24]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Atesoglu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Balance of payments-constrained growth model and its implications for the U.S.]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Post Keynesian Economics]]></source>
<year>1997</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>325-35</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Amsden]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Rise of &#8220;The Rest&#8221;: Challenges to the West from Late-Industrializing Economies]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[New York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Oxford University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Blecker]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Demand, distribution and growth in Neo-Kaleckian macro models]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Setterfield]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Economics of Demand-Led Growth: Challenging the Supply-Side Vision of the Long-Run]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Aldershot ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Edward Elgar]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bresser-Pereira]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Dutch disease and its neutralization: A Ricardian approach]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista de Economia Política]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>28</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>47-71</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bresser-Pereira]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Globalização e Competição]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Rio de Janeiro ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Elsevier-Campus]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bresser-Pereira]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oreiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Marconi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Developmental Macroeconomics: New Developmentalism as a Growth Strategy]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Londres ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Routledge]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Diamand]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[La estructura productiva desequilibrada argentina y el tipo de cambio]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Desarrollo Económico]]></source>
<year>1972</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<numero>45</numero>
<issue>45</issue>
<page-range>25-47</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lewis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The Manchester School]]></source>
<year>1954</year>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>139-91</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kaldor]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Strategic Factors in Economic Development]]></source>
<year>1967</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ithaca ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[New York State School of Industrial and Labor Relations]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Keynes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money]]></source>
<year>1936</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cambridge ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Macmillan Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Maddison]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Ultimate and proximate growth causality: A critique to Mancur Olson on the Rise and Decline of Nations]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Scandinavian Economic History Review]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>25-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[McCombie]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.S.L]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Roberts]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Role of the Balance of Payments in Economic Growth]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Setterfield]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Economics of Demand-Led Growth]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Aldershot ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Edward Elgar]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oreiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Accumulation regimes, endogenous desired rate of capacity utilization, and income distribution]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Investigación Económica]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<volume>63</volume>
<numero>248</numero>
<issue>248</issue>
<page-range>41-70</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oreiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martins da Silva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Structuralist Development Macroeconomics and New Developmentalism: Theoretical foundations and recent developments]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Práticas de Administração Pública]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>61-87</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oreiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Costa Santos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The impossible quartet in a demand-led growth super multiplier model for a small open economy]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Brazilian Journal of Political Economy]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
<volume>43</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>592-618</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oreiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Manarin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gala]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Deindustrialization, economic complexity, and exchange rate overvaluation: The case of Brazil (1998-2017)]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[PSL Quarterly Review]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>73</volume>
<numero>295</numero>
<issue>295</issue>
<page-range>313-41</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oreiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martins da Silva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dávila-Fernandez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A New Developmentalist model of structural change, economic growth and middle-income traps]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Structural Change and Economic Dynamics]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>55</volume>
<page-range>26-38</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oreiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gabriel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[D&#8217;Amato]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martins da Silva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Labour market reforms in Brazil (2017-2021): An analysis of the effects of recent flexibilization on labor market legislation]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Panoeconomicus]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
<volume>70</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>601-25</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Marconi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The industrial equilibrium exchange rate in Brazil: An estimation]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Brazilian Journal of Political Economy]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>32</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>656-69</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moreno-Brid]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[On capital flows and the balance of payments constrained growth model]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Post Keynesian Economics]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<volume>21</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>283-98</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Palazzo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rapetti]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[From macro to micro and macro back: Macroeconomic trade elasticities in a developing economy]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Structural Change and Economic Dynamics]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
<volume>65</volume>
<page-range>223-53</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Park]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Autonomous demand and the warranted rate of growth]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Contributions to Political Economy]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-18</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pasinetti]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Structural Economic Dynamics]]></source>
<year>1991</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cambridge ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cambridge University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Thirlwall]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rate differences]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review]]></source>
<year>1979</year>
<volume>32</volume>
<numero>128</numero>
<issue>128</issue>
<page-range>45-53</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B25">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Thirlwall]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The relation between the warranted growth rate, the natural growth rate and the balance of payments equilibrium growth rates]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Post Keynesian Economics]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>81-8</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B26">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Thirlwall]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy: The Role of Structure and Demand]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cheltenham ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Edward Elgar]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
