<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672023000300003</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.325.86133</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The U.S. financial quandary: zirp&#8217;s only exit path is a crash]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El dilema financiero de Estados Unidos: la única salida a la política de tasa de interés cero es una bancarrota]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hudson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Michael]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Missouri  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Kansas City ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>82</volume>
<numero>325</numero>
<fpage>3</fpage>
<lpage>20</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672023000300003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672023000300003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672023000300003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Interest-bearing debt grows exponentially, in an upsweep. The non-financial economy of production and consumption grows more slowly as income is diverted to carry the debt overhead. A crash occurs when a large part of the economy cannot pay its scheduled debt service. That point arrived for the U.S. economy in 2008, but was minimized by a bank bailout, followed by a 14-year boom as the Federal Reserve increased bank liquidity by its Zero Interest-Rate Policy (zirp). Flooding the capital markets with easy credit quintupled stock prices and engendered the largest bond market boom in U.S. history, but did not revive tangible capital investment, real wages or prosperity for the non-financial economy at large. Reversing the zirp in 2022 caused bond prices to fall and ended the run up of stock market and real estate prices. The great 14-year debt increase faced sharply rising interest charges, and by spring 2023 a number of banks failed, but all their depositors were bailed out by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (fdic) and Federal Reserve. The open question is now whether the U.S. economy will face the financial crash that was postponed from 2009 onwards by the vast expansion of debt under zirp that has added to the economy&#8217;s debt burden.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN La deuda con intereses crece de forma exponencial como una curva ascendente. La economía no financiera de la producción y el consumo crece más lentamente conforme el ingreso se desvía para solventar los gastos de la deuda. El crac financiero ocurre cuando una gran parte de la economía no puede pagar el servicio de su deuda programada. Ese momento llegó para la economía de Estados Unidos en 2008, pero fue minimizado por un rescate bancario, seguido de un auge de 14 años porque la Reserva Federal incrementó la liquidez mediante su política de tasa de interés cero (zirp, Zero Interest-Rate Policy). La inundación de los mercados de capital con crédito fácil quintuplicó los precios de las acciones y generó el auge del mercado de bonos más grande en la historia de Estados Unidos, pero no reanimó la inversión de capital tangible, los salarios reales ni la prosperidad de la economía no financiera en general. El abandono de la zirp en 2022 causó un descenso de los precios de los bonos y puso punto final al auge del mercado de valores y de los precios de los bienes raíces. El gran aumento de la deuda de esos 14 años confrontó drásticos cargos de tasas de interés crecientes y en la primavera de 2023 un número importante de bancos quebró, pero los depósitos de sus clientes fueron rescatados por la fdic y la Reserva Federal. La pregunta abierta es si ahora la economía de Estados Unidos experimentará el crac financiero que fue pospuesto desde 2009 en adelante por la vasta expansión de deuda de la zirp que ha acrecentado el peso de la deuda de la economía.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Central Banks and their policies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[financial crisis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[financial economics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[financial markets]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[bancos centrales y sus políticas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crisis financiera]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[economía financiera]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mercados financieros]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bezemer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hudson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Finance is not the Economy: Reviving the conceptual distinction]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic Issues]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>50</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>745-68</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hudson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Capital gains, total returns and saving rates]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>221-30</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hudson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Destroy the Global Economy]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Forest Hills, NY ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[ISLET]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hudson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[&#8216;Creating wealth&#8217; through debt: The West&#8217;s finance-capitalist road]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[World Review of Political Economy]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>171-90</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hudson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[How an &#8216;Act of God&#8217; pandemic is destroying the West: The. U.S. is saving the financial sector, not the economy]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[McKinney]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[When China Sneezes: From the Coronavirus Lockdown to the Global Politico-Economic Implications]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<page-range>111-20</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Atlanta ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Clarity Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hudson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Rent-seeking and asset-price inflation: A total-returns profile of economic polarization in America]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Review of Keynesian Economics]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>435-60</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<collab>McKinsey</collab>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The future of wealth and growth is in the balance]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[McKinsey Global Institute]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<collab>Wall Street Journal</collab>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Even top property owners can default]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Wall Street Journal, Heard on the Street]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
