<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672022000200062</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.01851667p.2022.320.81132</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Impact of us economic policy on major Latin America&#8217;s stock markets, 2002-2020]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Impacto de la política económica de Estados Unidos en las principales bolsas de valores de América Latina, 2002-2020]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Coronado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Semei]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Venegas-Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Palomar College  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,California State University Dominguez Hills  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>81</volume>
<numero>320</numero>
<fpage>62</fpage>
<lpage>80</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672022000200062&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672022000200062&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672022000200062&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT US Economic Policy Uncertainty (USEPU) represents a risk in which government policies and regulatory frameworks are not clearly defined for the near future. This phenomenon can generate negative effects around the world by delaying the investments of corporations and investors in stock markets, which in turn affects economic activity. This article assesses the impact of the USEPU on the main stock exchanges in Latin America (Chile, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia). To do this, a Time-Varying Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive model is applied. Data is obtained from Bloomberg for the period 2002-2020. The main empirical results obtained are that a USEPU shock initially affects returns negatively and then its effect turns positive, with a peak around three months, for Chile&#8217;s IPSA (Índice de Precios Selectivo de Acciones) index, Brazil&#8217;s IBOV (abbreviated name of IBOVespa, Índice da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo) index and Mexico&#8217;s MEXBOL (Mexican Bolsa) index. The same happens on a smaller scale with Colombia&#8217;s COLCAP (Colombia Capital) index. The shock completely dissipates after two years for all countries. A Time-Varying Granger Causality test corroborates the above results. Finally, the consequences of the USEPU for emerging countries with similar characteristics are discussed and several policy recommendations focused on reducing the impact are provided.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN La Incertidumbre de la Política Económica de EE. UU. (USEPU, US Economic Policy Uncertainty) representa un riesgo en el que las políticas gubernamentales y los marcos regulatorios no están claramente definidos para el futuro cercano. Este fenómeno puede generar efectos negativos en todo el mundo al retrasar las inversiones de corporaciones e inversionistas en los mercados bursátiles, lo que a su vez afecta la actividad económica. Este artículo evalúa el impacto de la USEPU en las principales bolsas de valores de América Latina (Chile, Brasil, México y Colombia). Para ello, se aplica un modelo bayesiano de vectores autorregresivos estructurales con parámetros variables en el tiempo. Los datos se obtuvieron de Bloomberg para el periodo 2002-2020. Los principales resultados empíricos son que un choque de USEPU afecta inicialmente los rendimientos negativamente y luego su efecto se vuelve positivo, con un pico alrededor de los tres meses, para el Índice de Precios Selectivo de Acciones (IPSA) de Chile, el índice IBOV (nombre abreviado de IBOVESPA, Índice da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo) y el índice MEXBOL (Mexican Bolsa). Lo mismo sucede en menor escala con el índice COLCAP (Colombia Capital). El shock se disipa por completo después de dos años para todos los países. Una prueba de causalidad de Granger con parámetros variables en el tiempo corrobora los resultados anteriores. Finalmente, se discuten las consecuencias de la USEPU para países emergentes con características similares y se proporcionan varias recomendaciones de política enfocadas en la reducción del impacto.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Economic policy uncertainty]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[emerging stock markets]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[econometric models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian estimation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[incertidumbre de política económica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mercados bursátiles emergentes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos econométricos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estimación bayesiana]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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