<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672021000300082</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.01851667p.2021.317.79301</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[What if Merkel had acted like Johnson against COVID-19?]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[¿Qué habría sucedido si Merkel hubiera actuado como Johnson contra la pandemia COVID-19?]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mellacher]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Patrick]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Graz  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Austria</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>80</volume>
<numero>317</numero>
<fpage>82</fpage>
<lpage>108</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672021000300082&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672021000300082&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672021000300082&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The first wave of COVID-19 infections had a heterogeneous impact on European countries with respect to public health and economic outcomes. Germany and the United Kingdom (UK) stand out in particular, as the UK fared much worse in both dimensions. I study whether these differences can be attributed to a &#8220;smarter&#8221; German containment policy using the COVID-Town economic-epidemiological agent-based model. After calibrating the model to a German baseline scenario, I show that a British containment policy scenario can accurately predict the UK number of deaths per capita. Furthermore, the UK scenario is associated with higher economic and social costs. The differences can largely be attributed to COVID-19 testing capacities and policy timing. While timing is associated with the known trade-off between public health and economic/social outcomes, increased testing can reduce deaths and increase Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simultaneously.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN La primera ola de infecciones COVID-19 tuvo un impacto heterogéneo en las economías europeas en lo que concierne a la salud pública y a los efectos económicos. Alemania y el Reino Unido (RU) destacan en particular, dado que el RU se desempeñó peor en ambas dimensiones. En este artículo utilizo el modelo basado en agentes COVID-Town economic-epidemiological y analizo si estas diferencias pueden atribuirse a una política de contención alemana &#8220;más inteligente&#8221;. Después de calibrar el modelo para un escenario de base alemán, muestro que un escenario de política de contención británico puede pronosticar de forma precisa el número de muertes per cápita del RU. Más aún, el escenario del RU está asociado con costos sociales y económicos más altos. Las diferencias pueden atribuirse en gran medida a las capacidades de pruebas COVID-19 y a la oportunidad temporal de las medidas de política. Mientras que esto último está asociado con el conocido conflicto entre la salud pública y los efectos económico-sociales, el incremento en el número de pruebas puede reducir las muertes y aumentar el producto interno bruto (PIB) de forma simultánea.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Economic epidemiology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[pandemic]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[agent-based macroeconomics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[complexity economics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[non-pharmaceutical interventions]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[epidemiología económica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pandemia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[macroeconomía basada en agentes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[economía de la complejidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[intervenciones no farmacéuticas]]></kwd>
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