<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672019000300080</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.01851667p.2019.309.70120</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Efectos de la incertidumbre de los precios del petróleo en el crecimiento económico de México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Effects of oil prices uncertainty on Mexico&#8217;s economic growth]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez Benavides]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Domingo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana Departamento de Sistemas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Azcapotzalco ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>78</volume>
<numero>309</numero>
<fpage>80</fpage>
<lpage>106</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672019000300080&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672019000300080&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672019000300080&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En este trabajo investigamos si la incertidumbre del precio internacional del petróleo incidió en la actividad económica de México durante 1983:2-2017:4. Empleamos un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) estructural bivariado con un proceso generalizado autorregresivo de heterocedasticidad condicional (GARCH) en media que captura el impacto de la volatilidad del petróleo en el crecimiento económico y la formación bruta de capital fijo. Nuestros resultados muestran que la incertidumbre del mercado petrolero tiene una influencia negativa en la actividad económica. Además, revelan la presencia de efectos asimétricos: la tasa de crecimiento de la producción aumenta (disminuye) después de un choque negativo (positivo) en el precio del petróleo. Estos resultados destacan la importancia de políticas públicas que mitiguen el efecto de la incertidumbre del mercado petrolero y contribuyan a la estabilidad económica.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract We inquire whether the uncertainty of international oil prices affected Mexico&#8217;s economic activity during 1983:2-2017:4. To measure such impact we use a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in-mean process that captures the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth and gross fixed capital formation. Our results show that the said uncertainty has a negative influence on Mexico&#8217;s economic activity. Further, they reveal the presence of asymmetric effects, as the output growth rate increases (decreases) after a negative (positive) oil price shock. These results highlight the importance of adopting public policies aimed at mitigating the effects of oil market uncertainty and help stabilize economic activity.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[volatilidad del precio del petróleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[actividad económica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[VAR-GARCH multivariado en media]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[efectos asimétricos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E32]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C32]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Oil price volatility]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic activity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[multivariate VAR-GARCH in-mean]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[asymmetric effects]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E32]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C32]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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