<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672018000200007</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The natural interest rate fallacy: why negative interest rate policy may worsen Keynesian unemployment?]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La falacia de la tasa de interés natural: ¿por qué la política de tasas de interés negativas puede empeorar el desempleo keynesiano?]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Palley]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Thomas I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,mail@thomaspalley.com  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>United States of American</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>77</volume>
<numero>304</numero>
<fpage>7</fpage>
<lpage>39</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672018000200007&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672018000200007&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672018000200007&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract NIRP has quickly become a consensus policy within the economics establishment. This paper argues that consensus is dangerously wrong, resting on flawed theory and flawed policy assessment. Regarding theory, NIRP draws on fallacious pre-Keynesian classical economic logic that asserts there is a natural rate of interest which can ensure full employment. That pre-Keynesian logic has been augmented by zero lower bound economics which claims the natural rate may be negative in times of severe demand shortage, so that policy must deliver it since the market cannot. In contrast, Keynes argued investment could become saturated so lower interest rates cannot increase aggregate demand (AD) and no natural interest rate exists. Regarding policy assessment, NIRP turns a blind eye to the possibility that negative interest rates may reduce AD, cause financial fragility, create a macroeconomics of whiplash owing to contradictions between policy today and tomorrow, promote currency wars that undermine the international economy, and foster a political economy that spawns toxic politics. Worst of all, NIRP maintains and encourages the flawed model of growth, based on debt and asset price inflation, which has already done such harm.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En la economía convencional ha cristalizado de forma rápida un consenso en torno de la política de tasas de interés negativas (PTIN). En este artículo argumento que este consenso es erróneo y peligroso, dado que descansa en una teoría equivocada y en una evaluación de política defectuosa. Respecto de la teoría, la PTIN se basa en una lógica clásica pre-keynesiana falsa que sostiene que existe una tasa de interés natural que puede garantizar el pleno empleo. Esa lógica pre-keynesiana se ha extendido con la economía de límite inferior cero que afirma que la tasa natural puede ser negativa en momentos de escasez severa de demanda, de suerte que la política económica debe proveerla dado que el mercado es incapaz de hacerlo. En contraste, Keynes argumenta que la inversión puede saturarse, de manera que las tasas de interés bajas no pueden incrementar la demanda agregada (DA), y que la tasa de interés natural no existe. En cuanto a la evaluación de política, la PTIN soslaya la posibilidad de que las tasas de interés negativas pueden reducir la DA, causar fragilidad financiera, generar una macroeconomía de latigazos debido a las contradicciones entre la política de hoy y la de mañana, promover guerras monetarias que socaven a la economía internacional y fortalecer una economía política que engendra políticas tóxicas. Lo peor de todo es que la PTIN sostiene y alienta el modelo de crecimiento erróneo que se basa en deuda y en la inflación del precio de los activos, que ya ha causado un gran daño.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[NIRP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[zero lower bound]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[investment saturation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E00]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E10]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E12]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E44]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E52]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[PTIN]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[límite inferior cero]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[saturación de inversión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E00]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E10]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E12]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E44]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E52]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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