<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672016000200111</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.inveco.2016.07.005</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Dependencia condicional en colas entre el mercado accionario y el crecimiento económico: el caso mexicano]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Arturo Lorenzo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Massa Roldán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de las Américas Puebla Departamento de Actuaría, Física y Matemáticas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey EGADE Business School ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>75</volume>
<numero>296</numero>
<fpage>111</fpage>
<lpage>131</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672016000200111&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672016000200111&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672016000200111&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Las investigaciones realizadas en torno a la relación entre el mercado financiero y el crecimiento económico se han concentrado en buscar el sentido de causalidad y una relación de largo plazo entre ellas, sin ser concluyentes en los resultados. Se observa que las herramientas utilizadas para estos propósitos asumen una distribución normal gaussiana bivariada, razón por la cual no se captan los efectos de dependencia asimétrica. El presente trabajo empleó la herramienta de cópula condicional-TGARCH bivariada para determinar la dependencia condicional en colas entre los rendimientos mensuales del Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones (IPC) de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores y las tasas de crecimiento del Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) durante el periodo de enero de 1993 a junio de 2015. Nuestros resultados sugieren la existencia de una relación de dependencia que no es uniforme en el tiempo; es mayor en momentos cercanos a crisis y se debilita posteriormente.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Research on the relationship between financial markets and economic growth has focused on finding their causal influence and long-term relationship with inconclusive results. The typical tools used for these purposes assume a bivariate Gaussian normal distribution, hence elements such as asymmetric dependence is not captured. The present work used the conditional bivariate copula-TGARCH tool to determine the conditional dependence between the monthly returns of the Mexican stock exchange price index (IPC) and the index measuring the overall growth of economic activity (IGAE) for the January 1993 to June 2015 period. Our results suggest a dependence relationship that varies with time; it is higher in near crisis periods and weakens afterwards.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[conditional copulas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[tail dependence]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[stock market]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cópulas condicionales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[dependencia en colas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mercado accionario]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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