<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672002000200051</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La integración monetaria silenciosa de México. La evidencia empírica, 1980-2000]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The silent monetary integration of Mexico. The empirical evidence, 1980-2000]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Loría]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Facultad de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2002</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2002</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>62</volume>
<numero>240</numero>
<fpage>51</fpage>
<lpage>76</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672002000200051&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672002000200051&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672002000200051&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Se prueba empíricamente, a través del procedimiento de causalidad de Granger y de cointegración de Johansen, que desde 1986 tanto el PIB como la oferta monetaria (M1) reales mexicanos claramente están influidos por la evolución de esas mismas variables de la economía de Estados Unidos. Los resultados empíricos obtenidos, apoyados teóricamente en el enfoque monetario del tipo de cambio, indican que desde entonces se está dando un proceso silencioso o inercial de integración de la economía mexicana a la de Estados Unidos, con lo que paulatinamente los instrumentos tradicionales de política económica del gobierno mexicano han ido perdiendo efectividad para conducir a estas variables en un sentido distinto, por lo que cuando lo han intentado, quizá han contribuido a provocar crisis cambiarias y financieras. El alcance principal de este trabajo consiste en estimar con el rigor de la econometría moderna la magnitud de esa integración, con lo cual es posible hacer pronóstico.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract It is empirically proven through Granger Causality and Johansen Cointegration Procedure, that since 1986.1 on the Mexican Gross Domestic Product as well as the Monetary Supply (M1) are clearly influenced by the same variables of the US economy. Based upon the Monetary Approach of the Exchange Rate, those empirical findings suggest that an inertial or silent monetary integration has been in effect. Accordingly the domestic (also traditional) instruments of economic policy of the Mexican Government have been slowly reducing their effectiveness in order to counteract the US cycle. The main contribution is to estimate -through modern econometrics of time series- the evolution of the above mentioned integration and therefore do forecasting.]]></p></abstract>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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