<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-013X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Foro internacional]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Foro int]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-013X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-013X2018000300421</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24201/fi.58i3.2447</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Secreto a voces. ¿La ascensión presidencial de Mike Pence?]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Addressing the Elephant in the Room. The Rise of President Mike Pence?]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="fr"><![CDATA[Un secret de Polichinelle. Mike Pence ne pourrait-il pas accéder À la présidence?]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cisneros Tirado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Navarro Sequeira]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Melva G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Scherlen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Renee]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Estatal de los Apalaches  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>58</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>421</fpage>
<lpage>458</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-013X2018000300421&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-013X2018000300421&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-013X2018000300421&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: ¿Cuán factible es que el Donald Trump no concluya su periodo presidencial? El ahora presidente Trump hizo una muy polémica campaña política y no pocos de sus mensajes se tuvieron por xenófobos, misóginos y racistas. Después de convertirse en el XLV presidente de los Estados Unidos, varios especialistas esperaban que sus primeras acciones oficiales fueran menos controvertidas, lo cual habría establecido un tono más conciliador para el resto de su administración. Con todo, casi al final del primer año de su presidencia, éste no ha sido el caso. Hasta ahora, Trump ha firmado más de 60 decretos presidenciales, rebasando lo hecho por cualquier otro presidente durante ese mismo lapso. Estos decretos han confrontado directamente algunas de las acciones más prominentes de la anterior administración, lo cual ha contribuido a modificar el escenario político en los Estados Unidos. Asimismo, Trump ha intentado disminuir la regulación de los mercados financieros de Wall Street, reducir restricciones que protegen el medio ambiente e incluso modificar la configuración misma del Consejo Nacional de Seguridad. De igual forma, ha intentado en tres ocasiones prohibir la inmigración desde países mayormente musulmanes, construir un improbable muro fronterizo con México y hasta desarticular las reformas al sistema de seguridad social implementadas por Obama. Esta administración ha estado plagada de escándalos desde sus inicios, de entre los que se destaca la investigación que actualmente se conduce sobre la posible colusión entre la campaña presidencial de Trump y el gobierno ruso. Ante estos hechos, figuras prominentes del partido Republicano en el congreso han criticado duramente al presidente Trump. Con base en la Sección 4 de la XXV Enmienda, si el Vicepresidente y una mayoría simple del gabinete consideran que el Presidente no es apto para desempeñar las responsabilidades de su cargo puede ser removido del mismo y aquél ser designado como Presidente interino. Otra posibilidad es que el Presidente pudiera ser impugnado por abusar de su poder, obstruir la justicia o por un conflicto de intereses. A la luz del desempeño de la actual administración, este artículo propone una serie de escenarios prospectivos, entre los cuales se considera la posibilidad de que Trump no concluya su primer periodo presidencial, a causa tal vez o de la impugnación o la remoción del cargo con base en la XXV Enmienda y el consecuente encumbramiento de Mike Pence.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: How likely is it that President Trump will not serve his full term? Donald Trump ran a highly contentious political campaign; many of his messages could be identified as xenophobic, misogynist or racist. After becoming the 45th president of the United States, many political observers expected his initial actions would be less controversial, thus setting a more compromising tone for his government. However, this has not happened. President Trump signed more than sixty executive orders, which rolled back on some of the most prominent government actions implemented by the Obama administration. President Trump is also spearheading changes aimed at modifying the economic and geopolitical landscape by loosening Wall Street and environmental regulations, altering the tax code, banning immigration from several Muslim-majority countries and continuing plans to build a border wall. In addition, the Administration has become mired in a scandal regarding its potential links between the presidential campaign and the Russian government. According to Section 4 of the 25th amendment of the Constitution of the United States, if the Vice President and a simple majority of the Cabinet deem the President unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President becomes Acting President. Another possible scenario could lead to impeachment based on conflict of interests or misuse of Presidential power. Again, the result of successful impeachment would be Mike Pence assuming the presidency. Our paper analyzes various possible scenarios regarding prospective challenges to the continuation of President Trump in office. The purpose of the paper is to assess the relative likelihood of different paths to power for Mike Pence.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="fr"><p><![CDATA[Résumé: Donald Trump achèveratil son mandat? Lors de sa campagne électorale, plusieurs de ses messages ont paru xénophobes, mysogines et racistes. Une fois qu&#8217;il est devenu le 45ème président des États-Unis, les spécialistes s&#8217;attendaient à ce que ses premières mesures officielles soient moins controversées, afin de prendre un ton conciliant pour le reste de son gouvernement. Au bout d&#8217;un an, il n&#8217;en a pas été ainsi. Jusqu&#8217;à présent, Trump a signé plus de soixante décrets présidentiels -beaucoup plus que n&#8217;importe quel président américain le long d&#8217;une période comparable- qui cherchent à annuler certaines des politiques les plus importantes de son prédécesseur. Ceci a transformé la scène de son pays. Trump a lutté contre la réglementation des marchés financiers et contre les normes protégeant l&#8217;environnement; il a essayé de modifier la composition du Conseil de sécurité nationale; en outre, il a tenté à trois reprises d&#8217;interdire l&#8217;immigration provenant de pays à majorité musulmane, il insiste encore sur la construction d&#8217;un mur le long de la frontière avec le Mexique et il a même cherché à démanteler la réforme du système de santé qu&#8217;a promue Obama. Depuis ses débuts, Trump a été frappé par des scandales, y compris celui qui concerne le soutien russe à sa candidature. C&#8217;est pourquoi il a été critiqué ouvertement par des membres distingués du Parti républicain et du Congrès. D&#8217;après la section 4 du 25ème amendement, lorsque le vice-président et la majorité simple du cabinet considèrent que le président est inapte à l&#8217;exercice de ses fonctions, celui-ci est démis de son poste au profit du premier, qui est alors nommé président intérimaire. Il est possible de destituer un président en cas d&#8217;abus de pouvoir, d&#8217;obstruction à la justice ou de conflits d&#8217;intérêts. Notre article propose plusieurs scénarios, au cas où Trump serait accusé ou destitué, ce après quoi Mike Pence pourrait le remplacer.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Presidente Donald Trump]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Mike Pence]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[XXV Enmienda]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sucesión presidencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[impugnación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[President Donald Trump]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mike Pence]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[25th Amendment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[presidential succession]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[impeachment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[Donald Trump]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[Mike Pence]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[25ème Amendement]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[succession présidentielle]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[contestation]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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