<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0036-3634</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Salud Pública de México]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Salud pública Méx]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0036-3634</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0036-36342017000100041</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21149/8414</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Effects of climatic and social factors on dengue incidence in Mexican municipalities in the state of Veracruz]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Efectos de factores climáticos y sociales en la incidencia de dengue en municipios mexicanos en el estado de Veracruz]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moreno-Banda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Grea Litai]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Riojas-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Horacio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hurtado-Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Magali]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Danis-Lozano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rogelio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rothenberg]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Stephen Joel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cuernavaca ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Tapachula ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>59</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>41</fpage>
<lpage>52</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0036-36342017000100041&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0036-36342017000100041&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0036-36342017000100041&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract:  Objective:  To assess links between the social variables and longer-term El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related weather conditions as they relate to the week-to-week changes in dengue incidence at a regional level.  Materials and methods:  We collected data from 10 municipalities of the Olmeca region in México, over a 10 year period (January 1995 to December 2005). Negative binomial models with distributed lags were adjusted to look for associations between changes in the weekly incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability.  Results:  Our results show that it takes approximately six weeks for sea surface temperatures (SST -34) to affect dengue incidence adjusted by weather and social variables.  Conclusion:  Such models could be used as early as two months in advance to provide information to decision makers about potential epidemics. Elucidating the effect of climatic variability and social variables, could assist in the development of accurate early warning systems for epidemics like dengue, Chikungunya and Zika.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen:  Objetivo:  Evaluar los vínculos entre las variables sociales y las condiciones climáticas de largo plazo relacionadas con El Niño-oscilación del sur (ENOS) y con los cambios semanales en la incidencia del dengue a nivel regional.  Material y métodos:  Los datos fueron recolectados en diez municipios de la región Olmeca, México, durante un periodo de 10 años (enero de 1995 a diciembre de 2005). Se ajustaron modelos binomial negativo con rezagos distribuidos para evaluar las asociaciones entre los cambios en la tasa de incidencia semanal de dengue y la variabilidad climática.  Resultados:  Se requieren aproximadamente seis semanas para observar un efecto del incremento de la temperatura de la superficie marina (TSM -34) sobre la incidencia de dengue, ajustando por variables de tiempo y variables sociales.  Conclusiones:  Estos modelos se pueden usar con dos meses de antelación para proveer de información a tomadores de decisión sobre potenciales epidemias. Elucidar el efecto de la variabilidad climática en conjunto con las variables sociales puede favorecer el desarrollo de los sistemas de alerta temprana ante epidemias como dengue, Chikungunya y Zika.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dengue]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[disease vectors]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[El Nino-southern oscillation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[time series studies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[dengue]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[vectores de enfermedades]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[El Niño oscilación del sur]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[clima]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estudios de series de temporales]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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