<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0016-7169</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Geofísica internacional]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Geofís. Intl]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0016-7169</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geofísica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0016-71692019000100033</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Hazard assessment of the ongoing lava dome eruption at Popocatépetl volcano from the statistical analysis of significant explosive events in the period of 1997 to 2016]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendoza-Rosas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ana Teresa]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cruz-Reyna]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Servando De la]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología Centro de Ingeniería y Desarrollo Industrial ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Querétaro Qro,]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Geofísica ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[CDMX ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>58</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>33</fpage>
<lpage>48</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0016-71692019000100033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0016-71692019000100033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0016-71692019000100033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract After 70 years of quiescence Popocatépetl volcano began a new episode of activity in 1994, which is still ongoing. The predominant activity has been a succession of dome emplacements followed by sequences of dome-destruction explosions producing prominent volcanic ash columns. Moreover, relatively large eruptive columns have also been produced during the dome growth stages. To assess the hazard of this activity we use the height of the columns as an indicator of the rate of energy release of the events and of their dispersive power and destructive potential. We hence built a database of the events producing columns exceeding heights of 4 km above the volcano summit for the period 1997 to 2016. Considering the occurrences of such columns as a random variable representing the hazard of such explosive activity, we studied the statistical features of the database, and found that the occurrence rate of significant explosions is a point process developing in at least two stages, with the significant change-point in 2003. The first stage from 1997 to 2003 is non stationary, while the second one, from 2003 to 2016, shows a stationary behavior. While the former is well described by a Mixture of Exponentials distribution (MOED), the latter fits well an Exponential distribution. The probabilities of significant eruptive columns occurring in given time intervals result to be strongly dependent on the stationarity of the process. The assessment of hazard thus requires a continuous testing of the time dependence of the ongoing process, since there is no clear physical evidence of the factors controlling this behavior.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El volcán Popocatépetl inició un episodio eruptivo en 1994 después de un periodo de 70 años de quietud. Este episodio, que persiste hasta el momento, se caracteriza por una secuencia de episodios sucesivos de emplazamiento y destrucción de domos de lava. Esta actividad va acompañada por la producción de columnas eruptivas de ceniza que alcanzan alturas considerables, tanto en las etapas de formación como de destrucción de los domos. Debido a que la altura de la columna es un indicador de la tasa de liberación de energía de cada evento y de su poder de dispersión y potencial destructivo, utilizamos ese parámetro como indicador del peligro asociado a esa actividad. Por lo tanto, hemos construido una base de datos de las columnas producidas por explosiones significativas que han superado la altura de 4 km sobre la cumbre del volcán en el período de 1997 a 2016. Considerando la ocurrencia de las columnas como una variable aleatoria que representa el peligro de dicha actividad explosiva, analizamos las características estadísticas de esa base de datos. Encontramos que se puede describir la ocurrencia de explosiones significativas como un proceso puntual que se desarrolla en al menos dos etapas, con un punto de cambio significativo en 2003. La primera etapa 1997-2003 tiene un marcado carácter no-estacionario, y se describe bien con una distribución de Mezcla de Exponenciales (MOED), mientras que la segunda, de 2003 a 2016 se comporta de forma estacionaria y se ajusta satisfactoriamente a una distribución exponencial. Esta característica produce diferencias importantes en los resultados de evaluación del peligro de ocurrencia de columnas eruptivas significativas, por lo que es importante analizar continuamente las características estadísticas del proceso para identificar posibles cambios en la dependencia temporal del proceso, que por lo general no van acompañados de manifestaciones físicas evidentes.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[volcán Popocatépetl]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[erupción de domos de lava]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[explosiones vulcanianas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[columnas eruptivas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[emisión de cenizas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[exhalaciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[análisis estadístico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Popocatépetl volcano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[lava dome eruption]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[vulcanian explosions]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[eruptive columns]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ash emission]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[exhalations]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[statistical analysis]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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