<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2663-3981</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista cartográfica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. cartogr.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2663-3981</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Panamericano de Geografía e Historia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2663-39812019000100123</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.35424/rcarto.i98.144</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Impacto socioeconómico por lahares y caída de ceniza ante la erupción del volcán Cayambe en la actividad florícola en Cayambe y Pedro Moncayo]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pavón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fernando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Andrade]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. Daniel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bernard]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Benjamin]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Contreras]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Escuela Politécnica Nacional  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Quito ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Escuela Politécnica Nacional Instituto Geofísico ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Quito ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Escuela Politécnica Nacional Instituto Geofísico ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Quito ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santiago ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>98</numero>
<fpage>123</fpage>
<lpage>143</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2663-39812019000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2663-39812019000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2663-39812019000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El complejo volcánico Cayambe representa una potencial amenaza para poblaciones que basan su economía en la floricultura. En este trabajo, se presenta: 1) modelar espacialmente escenarios de erupción del volcán, 2) modelar espacialmente el potencial impacto de estos escenarios de riesgos por afectación de lahares y de ceniza; y 3) evaluar los impactos socioeconómicos de escenarios de erupción modelados por caída de ceniza mediante un análisis estadístico de simulaciones numéricas de escenarios eruptivos y zonas de afectación por lahares tomadas del nuevo mapa de amenazas del Cayambe. Así se determinó que espesores de ceniza de 20 a 50 mm serían el principal problema cubriendo el 81.46% de la superficie con pérdidas que ascienden los 300 millones de dólares en plantas e invernaderos. En el caso de lahares las pérdidas se darían en los suelos y se estiman pérdidas de 45 millones de dólares en el caso de lahares primarios y 15 millones de dólares en caso de lahares secundarios. Los resultados obtenidos en las simulaciones tienen mejor nivel de detalle que los obtenidos en años anteriores por la información cartográfica disponible del sector y las herramientas computacionales utilizadas; los mismos que concuerdan con los depósitos del Cayambe y pueden ser manejados para la toma de decisiones en beneficio de las poblaciones afectadas, considerando que una erupción del volcán Cayambe merece una atención especial por su alto impacto socioeconómico local y nacional por ser las exportaciones de flores un rubro importante para el país.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The complex volcano of Cayambe in Ecuador represents a potential threat, especially for populations that base their economy in floriculture. In this work, we present: 1) spatially modeling the eruption scenarios of the volcano, 2) spatially modeling the potential impact of these risk scenarios by lahar and ash affectation; and 3) evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of eruption scenarios modeled by ash fall through a statistical analysis of numerical simulations of eruptive scenarios and areas affected by lahars taken from the new hazard map of Cayambe. Thus, it was determined that an ash depth of 20 to 50 mm would be the main issue, covering 81.46% of the surface with losses amounting to USD 320 million in plants and greenhouses. In the case of lahars, the losses would occur on the grounds. In the case of primary lahars, there might be an estimated loss of USD 45 million and in secondary lahars; the loss might be about USD 15 million. Results obtained in the simulations have a better level of detail than those obtained in previous years by the available cartographic information of the sector and the computational tools utilized. This ties in with Cayambe's deposits and can be managed for the decision-making in the interest of the affected populations, considering that an eruption of the Cayambe volcano requires careful attention for its high local and national socioeconomic impact because flower exportations are an important economic sector for the country.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo O complexo vulcânico Cayambe representa uma potencial ameaça para populações que baseiam sua economia na floricultura. Neste trabalho, se apresenta: 1) modelar espacialmente os cenários de erupção do vulcão; 2) modelar espacialmente o potencial impacto destes cenários de riscos afetados por lahares e cinzas e, 3) avaliar os impactos socioeconômicos de cenários de erupção modelados por queda de cinzas mediante uma análise estadística de simulações numéricas de cenários eruptivos e zonas afetadas por lahares, tomadas pelo novo mapa de ameaças do Cayambe. Assim se determinou que espessuras de cinza de 20 a 50 mm seriam o principal problema cobrindo 81.46% da superfície com perdas que ascendem os 300 milhões de dólares (USD) em plantas e estufas. No caso de lahares as perdas se dariam nos solos e se estimam perdas de 45 milhões de dólares no caso de lahares primários e 15 milhões no caso de lahares secundários. Os resultados obtidos nas simulações têm melhor nível de detalhe que os obtidos em anos anteriores pela informação cartográfica disponível e as ferramentas computacionais utilizadas; os mesmos que concordam com os depósitos do Cayambe e podem ser manejados para a tomada de decisões em benefício das populações afetadas, considerando que uma erupção do vulcão Cayambe merece uma atenção especial por seu alto impacto socioeconômico local e nacional por ser as exportações de flores um item importante para o país.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Cayambe]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ash]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[lahar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SIG]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[socio-economic impact]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Lahar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ceniza]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SIG]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cayambe]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[impacto socioeconómico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Lahar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[cinza]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[SIG]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Cayambe]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[impacto socioeconômico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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