<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2018000200411</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v5i338.542</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El supermultiplicador, la acumulación de capital, las exportaciones y el crecimiento económico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Super-Multiplier, Capital Accumulation, Exports and Economic Growth]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Perrotini Hernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ignacio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vázquez-Muñoz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Alberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México División de Estudios de Posgrado en Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla Facultad de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>85</volume>
<numero>338</numero>
<fpage>411</fpage>
<lpage>432</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000200411&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000200411&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000200411&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Antecedentes:  Siguiendo a Kaldor (1978) y a Thirlwall (1979), McCombie (1985) propone un supermultiplicador de las exportaciones en el que éstas afectan positivamente a los componentes de la demanda agregada en el contexto de una economía restringida por la balanza de pagos. En este artículo demostramos que el stock neto de capital también ejerce un efecto supermultiplicador que, a diferencia del anterior, es independiente del valor de la elasticidad ingreso de la demanda de importaciones.  Método:  Desarrollamos un modelo teórico en el que, dados los niveles de las exportaciones y del stock neto de capital, el nivel de ingreso se ajusta para equilibrar la balanza comercial. Asimismo, realizamos estimaciones econométricas mediante la técnica de efectos fijos usando paneles no balanceados con el fin de calcular las elasticidades del producto interno bruto (PIB) y de la producción para el mercado doméstico con respecto a las exportaciones y al stock neto de capital. Utilizamos datos correspondientes a seis países latinoamericanos para el periodo 1951-2015 y para los subperiodos antes y después de la liberalización económica  Resultados: Tanto el PIB como la producción para consumo doméstico exhiben una mayor elasticidad respecto a la acumulación neta de capital que en relación con las exportaciones.  Conclusiones:  La acumulación de capital puede afectar positivamente a la balanza comercial mediante la creación de capacidad productiva y la sustitución de importaciones. En consecuencia, tal como lo postuló Hicks (1950), la acumulación tiene un efecto supermultiplicador al permitir el incremento del resto de la demanda agregada, independientemente del valor de la elasticidad ingreso de la demanda de importaciones. El supermultiplicador de las exportaciones (McCombie, 1985) sólo es válido si la elasticidad ingreso de la absorción total de bienes y servicios es menor que la unidad. Además, si la elasticidad ingreso de la demanda de importaciones es mayor que la unidad, un incremento de las exportaciones implica la necesidad de reducir otros componentes de la demanda agregada con el fin de mantener el equilibrio dinámico de la balanza de pagos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Background:  Following Kaldor (1978) and Thirlwall (1979), McCombie (1985) advanced a foreign trade supermultiplier that positively influences other components of aggregate demand of a Balance-of-Payments constrained economy. In this paper, it is shown that net capital stock also exerts a super-multiplier effect, which, contrary to the exports multiplier, happens to be independent from the income elasticity of the demand for imports.  Methods:  A theoretical model is here presented where given the exports and net capital stock levels, the income level is adjusted to get trade balance equilibrium. We carried out econometric estimations using a fixed effect model and unbalanced panel data to compute the elasticities of both GDP and production for the domestic market vis-à-vis exports and the net capital stock. Our estimations are based on data from six Latin American countries for the period 1951-2015 and the sub-periods prior and after economic liberalization.  Results:  The elasticities of both GDP and production for the domestic market vis-à-vis the net capital stock proved to be higher than the said elasticities with respect to exports.  Conclusions:  Capital accumulation can positively affect the trade balance through economic capacity building and import substitution. Capital accumulation imparts a super-multiplier effect; as Hicks (1950) had pointed out, it makes space for aggregate demand to increase regardless the value of the income elasticity of the demand for imports. McCombie&#8217;s foreign trade super-multiplier is valid if and only if the income elasticity of total absorption of goods and services is lower than one. Yet, if such elasticity happens to be higher than one, an increase in exports will call for a reduction of the aggregate demand components other than exports so as to preserve the Balance of Payments dynamic equilibrium.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[América Latina]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[exportaciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[importaciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[acumulación de capital]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Latin America]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[exports]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[imports]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[capital accumulation]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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