<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0705</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Nova scientia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Nova scientia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0705</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de La Salle Bajío A. C., Coordinación de Investigación]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-07052022000100210</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21640/ns.v14i28.2839</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Leading macroeconomic indicators for a dynamic investment strategy]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Principales indicadores económicos para una estrategia de inversión dinámica]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Samaniego Alcántar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ángel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez Reyes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis Raúl]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Occidente  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>14</volume>
<numero>28</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-07052022000100210&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-07052022000100210&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-07052022000100210&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In this paper a long-term portfolio optimization model is developed, through the use of economic indicators (CLI and BCI). In this way, an investment portfolio will adjust to the movements of the business cycle, mitigating its risk in the event of possible downturns. The proposed model was tested in Mexico between 1998-2021. The active strategy makes investments in fixed income (Certificados de la Tesorería, CETES) and the market index (Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones, IPC), through operations of 25 % of the capital in monthly decisions. The dynamic investment strategy outperforms market index by 4.3 % in the period analyzed (differences in annual geometric return). In that period, only 5 % of the annual returns of the active strategy were negative, compared to 25.8 % in the market index.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En este documento se desarrolla un modelo de optimización de la cartera en el largo plazo, mediante el uso de indicadores económicos (CLI y BCI). De esta manera, un portafolio de inversión se ajustará a los movimientos del ciclo económico, mitigando su riesgo ante posibles caídas. El contraste del modelo propuesto se realizó en México entre 1998-2021. La estrategia activa realiza inversiones en renta fija (Certificados de la Tesorería, CETES) y en el índice de mercado (Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones, IPC), mediante operaciones del 25 % del capital en decisiones mensuales. La estrategia de inversión dinámica supera al índice de mercado en un 4.3 % en el periodo analizado (diferencias de rentabilidad geométrica anual). En ese periodo, sólo el 5 % de los rendimientos anuales de la estrategia activa fueron negativos, frente al 25.8 % del índice de mercado.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[asset allocation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[business cycle]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Composite Leading Indicator (CLI)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Business Confidence Indicator (BCI)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[active strategy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[portfolio optimization]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[finances]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[optimization]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[market]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[asignación de activos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ciclo económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[indicador adelantado compuesto (CLI)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[indicador de confianza empresarial (BCI)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estrategia activa]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[optimización de carteras]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[finanzas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[optimización]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mercado]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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