<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0705</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Nova scientia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Nova scientia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0705</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de La Salle Bajío A. C., Coordinación de Investigación]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-07052015000200474</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Uncertainty, profitability, and investment in Mexico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Incertidumbre, rentabilidad e inversión en México]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kato Vidal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Enrique Leonardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro Facultad de Contaduría y Administración ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>MX</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2015</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2015</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>14</numero>
<fpage>474</fpage>
<lpage>494</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-07052015000200474&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-07052015000200474&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-07052015000200474&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[The purpose of this paper is to distinguish between the corporate necessity of investing to create value and the discretion exercised to postpone investing because of higher uncertainty. The theory holds that investment is positively related to profitability and negatively linked with uncertainty. In Mexico, as in many other countries, there is still more uncertainty and less profitability after the economic crisis of 2008, but contrary to expectations, investment has maintained an upward trend. In this paper, a statistical comparison is performed using vector autoregressions on the quarterly data for Mexico. The evidence seems to suggest that, discounting uncertainty, only volume effect induces more investment regardless of the profit rate. The profitability indicator could reflect the effects of high market concentration, which has been a significant determining factor in other authors' estimates. We did not find evidence of incentives to invest resulting from an increase in profit rate. Therefore, the consumption or volume effect exceeds the profit rate impact on investment. The lack of domestic market dynamism does not contribute to the growing investment trend. I conclude that an economy with a low innovation propensity and a low interest rate creates conditions for investment to seek a higher total profit and not, necessarily, a higher rate of return. Although export firms have a greater propensity for investing and innovating, our evidence suggests that exports seem to crowd-out investment in the long-run.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[El objetivo es discriminar la disyuntiva entre la necesidad empresarial de invertir para crear valor y la cautela o postergación de las inversiones a causa de mayor incertidumbre. La teoría postula que la inversión depende positivamente de la rentabilidad y negativamente de la incertidumbre. En México, como en muchos países, después de la crisis de 2008, persiste más incertidumbre y menos rentabilidad y, contrario a lo esperado, la inversión mantiene su trayectoria ascendente. El contraste estadístico se realiza mediante vectores autorregresivos con datos trimestrales para México. Los resultados sugieren que, descontando la incertidumbre, solamente el efecto volumen impacta en más inversión, sin importar la tasa de ganancia. El indicador utilizado de rentabilidad puede reflejar los efectos de la alta concentración de mercados que ha sido un determinante significativo en las estimaciones de otros autores. No se halló evidencia de incentivos a invertir derivados de un aumento de la tasa de ganancia. Por lo que el efecto consumo o volumen sobre la inversión domina al impacto de la tasa de ganancia sobre la inversión. La falta de dinamismo del mercado interno no ha contribuido con la tendencia creciente de la inversión. Se concluye que una economía con baja propensión a innovar, y baja tasa de descuento, crean las condiciones para invertir buscando un mayor monto de ganancias y no, como predice la teoría, una mayor tasa de rentabilidad. Si bien las empresas exportadoras presentan una mayor propensión a innovar y a invertir, nuestros hallazgos sugieren que las exportaciones generan un efecto desplazamiento de la inversión en el largo plazo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Inversión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[rentabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[incertidumbre]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[exportaciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Investment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[profitability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[uncertainty]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[exports]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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