<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462021000100003</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v16i1.504</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Proyección Markoviana para 2020 y 2021 de las Calificaciones Corporativas en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Markovian Projection of Mexican Corporate Credit Ratings by 2020 and 2021]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez Vázquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David Conaly]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bucio Pacheco]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Christian]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cabello Rosales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandra]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462021000100003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462021000100003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462021000100003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Un elemento fundamental para la toma de decisiones en los mercados financieros y la economía, son las perspectivas crediticias de las empresas; sus calificaciones son una referencia clave ante la incertidumbre de los escenarios económicos y el movimiento de sus propios activos financieros en el mercado. Este trabajo analiza la dinámica a corto plazo de calificaciones de crédito de las principales corporaciones en México; examina la evolución de las calificaciones del sector corporativo en México y simula su comportamiento; se utiliza como base de datos los reportes de las Calificaciones Nacionales Corporativas de Fitch México 2002-2018. Se emplea la metodología de cadenas de Markov, primero se estiman las probabilidades de transición a través de Máxima Verosimilitud para confirmar la eficiencia metodológica y posteriormente se generan las proyecciones a 2020 y 2021. La evidencia empírica muestra que las calificaciones de crédito de las corporaciones en México presentan una tendencia decreciente pero estable en el corto plazo. Se recomienda que tanto las empresas como el gobierno profundicen la diversificación económica y mantengan una gestión disciplinada de sus operaciones como factores que coadyuven a sostener grados de inversión favorables.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract A key element for decision-making in financial markets and the economy is the prospects of corporate credit; their ratings are a key reference to the uncertainty of economic scenarios and the movement of their own financial assets in the market. This paper analyzes the short-term dynamics of credit ratings of major corporations in Mexico; it examines the evolution of corporate sector ratings in Mexico and simulates their behavior, using data from the reports of Fitch Mexico 2002-2018 National Corporate Qualifications. The Markov chain methodology is used, first the probabilities of transition are estimated through Maximum Likelihood to confirm the methodological efficiency and later projections for 2020 and 2021 are generated. Empirical evidence shows that credit ratings of Mexican corporations show a declining but stable trend in the short term. It is recommended that both companies and the government deepen economic diversification and maintain disciplined management of their operations as factors that help sustaining favorable investment grades.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cadenas de Markov]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Calificadoras]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Calificaciones Corporativas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Bolsa Mexicana de Valores]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Markov Chain]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Rating Agencies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Corporate Credit Ratings]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexican Stock Market]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wozabal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hochreiter]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A coupled Markov chain approach to credit risk modeling]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>403-15</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
