<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462020000200145</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v15i2.482</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[México 2020-2024: dos escenarios macroeconómicos]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mexico 2020-2024: Two Macroeconomic Scenarios]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Loría]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>15</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>145</fpage>
<lpage>172</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000200145&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000200145&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000200145&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En un contexto de alta incertidumbre interna que se ha agravado por el complejo ambiente económico, político (y ahora de salud) mundial, se hace un análisis numérico proveniente de simulaciones estocásticas dinámicas derivadas de Eudoxio: modelo macroeconométrico de la economía mexicana (Loría, 2019a) que genera dos escenarios macroeconómicos para México (inercial y pesimista) en sus principales variables de actividad eco- nómica para el horizonte 2020-2024. El escenario inercial arroja un crecimiento medio del PIB y del empleo de 1.27 % y 1.6 % contra 0.64 % y 1.04 % del escenario pesimista, respectivamente. No se visualiza un escenario optimista debido a la ausencia de articulación de políticas y hechos que fomenten el crecimiento económico mediante el fortalecimiento de la seguridad y, por tanto, de la confianza empresarial. Para considerar un esce- nario optimista se necesitaría de un verdadero cambio de políticas y del discurso oficial para recuperar aspectos fundamentales de la reforma energética y atender los enormes desafíos que están presentado la criminalidad y los aspectos fiscales sobre el crecimiento económico.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In a context of high internal uncertainty that has been aggravated by the complex global economic, political (and now health) environment, a numerical analysis is made from dynamic stochastic simulations derived from Eudoxio: Macroeconometric Model of the Mexican Economy (Loría, 2019a) that generates two macroeconomic scenarios for Mexico (inertial and pessimistic) in its main economic activity variables for the 2020-2024 horizon. The inertial scenario shows an average growth of GDP and employment of 1.27 % and 1.6 % against 0.64 % and 1.04 % of the pessimistic scenario, respectively. An optimistic scenario is not visualized due to the absence of articulation of policies and facts that foster economic growth by strengthening security and, therefore, business confidence. To consider an optimistic scenario, a dramatic change in public policies and official discourse is needed to recover fundamental aspects of the energy reform and address the enormous challenges presented by the rise of crime and the fiscal issues over of economic growth.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[stochastic dynamic simulations]]></kwd>
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</article-meta>
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