<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-3195</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-3195</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Colegio de Postgraduados]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-31952007000200181</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelos Arx para predecir la temperatura del aire de un invernadero: una metodología]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Arx models for predicting greenhouse air temperature: a methodology]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Cruz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Irineo L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rojano-Aguilar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Abraham]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ojeda-Bustamante]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Waldo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salazar-Moreno]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raquel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>41</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>181</fpage>
<lpage>192</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-31952007000200181&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-31952007000200181&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-31952007000200181&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Se presenta un procedimiento para obtener un modelo dinámico lineal de autoregresión con variables exógenas (ARX) para predecir el comportamiento de la temperatura del aire en el interior de un invernadero. Los ARX son modelos matemáticos dinámicos derivados de la teoría de Identificación de Sistemas. Las variables de entrada del modelo fueron temperatura del aire, radiación solar, velocidad del viento afectando el área de ventilación del invernadero y humedad relativa, cuantificadas en una estación meteorológica ubicada a 700 m de un invernadero en Chapingo, Estado de México. La variable de respuesta fue la temperatura del aire dentro del invernadero. Se tomaron muestras de las variables de entrada y de salida del modelo cada 5 min durante un ciclo de cultivo. Para determinar la estructura del mejor modelo, se evaluaron hasta 100 000 modelos ARX usando el criterio de información y el error de predicción final de Akaike. La bondad del ajuste entre las temperaturas simuladas y observadas, y el análisis residual, indicó que modelos ARX de segundo orden o superior predicen en forma adecuada el comportamiento de la temperatura dentro del invernadero.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract A procedure is presented for obtaining a dynamic linear model of auto-regression with exogenous variables (ARX) for predicting the behaviour of the air temperature inside a greenhouse. The ARX are dynamic mathematical models derived from the theory of Systems Identification. The input variables of the model were air temperature, solar radiation, wind velocity affecting the ventilation area of the greenhouse and relative humidity, quantified in a meteorological station located 700 m from a greenhouse in Chapingo, State of México. The response variable was the air temperature inside the greenhouse. Samples were taken of the input and output variables of the model every 5 min during a crop cycle. To determine the structure of the best model, as many as 100 000 ARX models were evaluated using the information criteria and final prediction error of Akaike. The adjustment between the simulated and observed temperatures, and the residual analysis, indicated that ARX models of second degree or above, adequately predict the behaviour of the temperature inside the greenhouse.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelos ARX]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de caja negra]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos dinámicos lineales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[temperatura del invernadero]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARX models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[black box models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dynamic linear models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[greenhouse temperature]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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