<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0301-7036</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Problemas del desarrollo]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Prob. Des]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0301-7036</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0301-70362016000300133</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[México: Crecimiento Económico Restringido y Tipo de Cambio, 1950-2014]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="fr"><![CDATA[Mexique: Croissance Économique Restreinte et Taux de Change, 1950-2014]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[México: Crescimento Econômico Restrito e Taxa de Câmbio, 1950-2014]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="zh"><![CDATA[&#22696;&#35199;&#21733;: &#27719;&#29575;&#21450;&#21463;&#38480;&#21046;&#30340;&#32463;&#27982;&#22686;&#38271;, 1950-2014]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mexico: Restricted Economic Growth and the Exchange Rate, 1950-2014]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Loría]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Facultad de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>47</volume>
<numero>186</numero>
<fpage>133</fpage>
<lpage>160</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0301-70362016000300133&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0301-70362016000300133&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0301-70362016000300133&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: La literatura reciente demuestra empíricamente que el tipo de cambio real es fundamental en la explicación del desenvolvimiento económico de los países en desarrollo. Se prueba empíricamente que la política cambiaria antiinflacionaria que se ha aplicado sistemáticamente constituye una fuerte restricción al crecimiento económico de México y que no parece haber cambiado en todo este periodo, a pesar de existir distintos regímenes monetarios y cambiarios. Se estima un SVAR(2) (1950-2014) que demuestra que las continuas apreciaciones cambiarias reales han reducido la capacidad de crecimiento económico en México y han afectado otros equilibrios macroeconómicos. Esta, por sí misma, podría considerarse como una reforma macroeconómica estructural de fuerte impacto.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="fr"><p><![CDATA[Résumé: La littérature récente démontre empiriquement que le taux de change réel est fondamental pour expliquer l&#8217;essor économique des pays en développement. Il est démontré de manière empirique que le régime de change anti-inflationniste qui a été appliqué systématiquement freine fortement la croissance économique du Mexique et qu&#8217;il ne semble pas avoir changé au long de cette période, bien qu&#8217;il existe divers régimes monétaires et de change. On estime un SVAR (1950-2014) qui montre que les continuelles appréciations de la monnaie au taux de change réel ont réduit la capacité de croissance économique au Mexique et ont affecté d&#8217;autres équilibres macroéconomiques. Ceci peut être considéré en soi comme une réforme macroéconomique structurelle de fort impact.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo: A literatura recente demonstra empiricamente que a taxa de câmbio real é fundamental na explicação do desenvolvimento econômico dos países em desenvolvimento. No trabalho se se prova empiricamente que a política cambiaria anti-inflacionária que se aplicou sistematicamente constituí uma forte restrição ao crescimento económico do México e que não parece ter mudado em todo este período, apesar de existir distintos regimes monetários e cambiários. Também se estima um SVAR (1950-2014) que demonstra que as continuas apreciações cambiarias reais reduziram a capacidade de crescimento econômico no México e afetaram outros equilíbrios macroeconômicos. Está, por si mesma, poderia se considerar como uma reforma macroeconômica estrutural de forte impacto.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="zh"><p><![CDATA[&#25688;&#35201;: &#36817;&#26399;&#30340;&#25991;&#29486;&#34920;&#26126;&#23454;&#38469;&#27719;&#29575;&#23545;&#35299;&#35835;&#21457;&#23637;&#20013;&#22269;&#23478;&#30340;&#32463;&#27982;&#21457;&#23637;&#26159;&#38750;&#24120;&#37325;&#35201;&#30340;&#12290;&#32463;&#39564;&#35777;&#26126;, &#19968;&#36143;&#30340;&#21453;&#36890;&#32960;&#27719;&#29575;&#25919;&#31574;&#26497;&#22823;&#21046;&#32422;&#20102;&#22696;&#35199;&#21733;&#30340;&#32463;&#27982;&#21457;&#23637;, &#24182;&#19988;&#34429;&#28982;&#36135;&#24065;&#21450;&#27719;&#29575;&#25919;&#31574;&#26377;&#36807;&#21464;&#21270;, &#20294;&#36825;&#19968;&#23616;&#38754;&#21521;&#26469;&#27809;&#26377;&#25913;&#35266;&#12290; SVAR &#27169;&#22411;&#34920;&#26126;&#65292; &#25345;&#32493;&#30340;&#23454;&#38469;&#27719;&#29575;&#21319;&#20540;&#21066;&#24369;&#20102;&#22696;&#35199;&#21733;&#30340;&#32463;&#27982;&#22686;&#38271;&#33021;&#21147;, &#21516;&#26102;&#20063;&#24433;&#21709;&#21040;&#20102;&#20854;&#20182;&#30340;&#23439;&#35266;&#32463;&#27982;&#24179;&#34913;&#12290;&#22240;&#27492;&#26412;&#25991;&#23558;&#25506;&#35752;&#26377;&#37325;&#22823;&#24433;&#21709;&#30340;&#23439;&#35266;&#32463;&#27982;&#30340;&#32467;&#26500;&#24615;&#25913;&#38761;&#12290;]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Recent literature has empirically demonstrated that the real exchange rate is essential to explaining the economic evolution of developing countries. It has been empirically proven that the anti-inflation exchange rate policy implemented systematically in Mexico has constituted a major restriction on the country&#8217;s economic growth, a restriction that has persisted throughout this entire time period, even through different monetary and exchange rate regimes. This paper estimates an SVAR (1950-2014) that shows how the continuous appreciation of the real exchange rate has curbed Mexico&#8217;s economic growth capacity and had an impact on other macroeconomic balances. This alone could be considered a highly potent structural macroeconomic reform.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tipo de cambio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[política monetaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[croissance économique]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[taux de change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[SVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[politique monétaire]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[crescimento econômico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[taxa de câmbio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[SVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[política monetária]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="zh"><![CDATA[&#32463;&#27982;&#22686;&#38271;]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="zh"><![CDATA[&#27719;&#29575;]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="zh"><![CDATA[SVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="zh"><![CDATA[&#36135;&#24065;&#25919;&#31574;]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[exchange rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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