<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-7372</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Frontera norte]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Frontera norte]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-7372</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de la Frontera Norte A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-73722025000100106</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.33679/rfn.v1i1.2379</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Factors Determining the Probability for Irregular Central American Migrants to Reside in the United States]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Factores que determinan la probabilidad de que los migrantes centroamericanos irregulares residan en Estados Unidos]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ravaux]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David Richard]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zúñiga Estrada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Magin]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Erika]]></given-names>
</name>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Aguascalientes ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>37</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-73722025000100106&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-73722025000100106&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-73722025000100106&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This article aims to study the factors that have favored the irregular entry and residence in the United States of migrants from the Northern Triangle of Central America during the period 2016-2019. The probabilities of success were estimated using data from Mexico&#8217;s Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Sur (Southern Border Migration Survey), and a binomial logistic regression model was run to test the four hypotheses posed around the factors that determine the success of migrants in that journey. The results show that individual characteristics such as socio-demographic traits (country of origin, gender, age, education level), English language proficiency, possession of network capital, and migrants&#8217; personal decisions significantly determine whether or not they will succeed in reaching and residing in the United States.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo tiene como objetivo estudiar los factores que han favorecido el ingreso y la residencia irregular en Estados Unidos de migrantes provenientes del Triángulo Norte de Centroamérica durante el período 2016-2019. Las probabilidades de éxito se estimaron con datos de la Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Sur de México, y se corrió un modelo de regresión logística binomial para probar las cuatro hipótesis planteadas en torno a los factores que determinan el éxito de los migrantes en dicho trayecto. Los resultados muestran que características individuales como los rasgos sociodemográficos (país de origen, sexo, edad, nivel educativo), el dominio del idioma inglés, la posesión de capital de red y las decisiones personales de los migrantes determinan significativamente si estos lograrán o no llegar y residir en Estados Unidos.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[irregular migration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[probability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Northern Triangle]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Central America]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[United States]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[migración irregular]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[probabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Triángulo Norte]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Centroamérica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Estados Unidos]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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