<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672019000200039</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.01851667p.2019.308.69621</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estimación de la NAIRU para México, 2002Q1-2018Q2]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Estimation of the NAIRU for Mexico, 2002Q1-2018Q2]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Loría]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tirado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raúl]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Facultad de Economía Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>78</volume>
<numero>308</numero>
<fpage>39</fpage>
<lpage>62</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672019000200039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672019000200039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672019000200039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Estimamos la tasa de desempleo no aceleradora de la inflación (NAIRU) para México (2002Q1-2018Q2) con la metodología de Ball y Mankiw (2002) utilizando el método generalizado de momentos. Probamos que el cálculo de la NAIRU con esta metodología es más eficiente que el puramente estadístico (filtro HP). Mostramos que: a) la crisis Punto Com y la Gran Recesión generaron efectos reales y duraderos en el mercado laboral; b) probamos que la política monetaria en México ha sido estabilizadora, y c) que la relación entre el desempleo y la inflación se ha fortalecido en los últimos años.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract We estimate the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for Mexico (2002Q1-2018Q2) with Ball and Mankiw&#8217;s (2002) methodology using the Generalized Method of Moments. We prove that, with this methodology, the calculation of NAIRU is more efficient than the one calculated with the HP filter. We show that: a) the Dot Com and the Great Recession crises have had real and lasting effects on the labor market; b) Mexico´s monetary policy has been stabilizing, and c) the relationship between unemployment and inflation has strengthened over the last years.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[NAIRU]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[brecha de desempleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[política monetaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[GMM]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio estructural]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[NAIRU]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[unemployment gap]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[GMM]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[structural change]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672019000200063</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.01851667p.2019.308.69623</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The effects of NAFTA on economic growth]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Los efectos del TLCAN en el crecimiento económico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cuevas Ahumada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López Churata]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Roger Ivanodik Juan]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana Department of Economics ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Azcapotzalco ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana Department of Economics ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Iztapalapa ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>78</volume>
<numero>308</numero>
<fpage>63</fpage>
<lpage>88</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672019000200063&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672019000200063&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672019000200063&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper evaluates the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement on the economic growth of Mexico, the United States and Canada by means of an augmented Solow growth model. Such a model is estimated with panel data through two econometric methods: 1) the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments, and 2) Feasible Generalized Least Squares. The two techniques are consistent in indicating that trade raises Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, controlling for physical capital stock per capita, human capital formation, total factor productivity, and the capital depreciation rate. However, the most important source of GDP per capita growth is human capital formation, which highlights the need to promote trade while investing more in long-term formal education, short-term training programs and the whole process of knowledge transferring.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Esta investigación evalúa los efectos del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte en el crecimiento económico de México, Estados Unidos y Canadá mediante una versión ampliada del modelo de crecimiento de Solow. El modelo se estima con datos en panel mediante dos métodos: 1) el método generalizado de momentos de Arellano y Bond, el cual se aplica a un panel dinámico y 2) mínimos cuadrados generalizados factibles. Ambos indican que el comercio incrementa el producto interno bruto (PIB) per cápita, controlando para el stock de capital físico y humano, la productividad total de los factores y la tasa de depreciación del capital. Sin embargo, la principal fuente de crecimiento económico es la formación de capital humano, por lo que se debe estimular el comercio internacional e invertir más en educación formal de largo plazo, programas de capacitación de corto plazo y todo el sistema de transferencia del conocimiento.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[international trade]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[human capital formation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[panel data models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[comercio internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[formación de capital humano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de datos en panel]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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