<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0016-7169</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Geofísica internacional]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Geofís. Intl]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0016-7169</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geofísica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0016-71692023000300563</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/igeof.2954436xe.2023.62.3.1713</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Modeling Forest Wildfires at Regional Scales]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Graciano-Luna]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José de Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Flores]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Felipa de Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Corral Rivas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sacramento]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Návar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Tecnológico Nacional de México Instituto Tecnológico de El Salto ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[El Salto, P.N. Durango]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Politecnica de Durango  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Dolores Hidalgo Durango]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Tecnológico Nacional de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[El Salto, P.N. Durango]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Tecnológico Nacional de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad Victoria Tamaulipas]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>62</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>563</fpage>
<lpage>579</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0016-71692023000300563&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0016-71692023000300563&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0016-71692023000300563&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper sets the following objectives: (i) presenting, (ii) testing, and (iii) evaluating a set of mathematical techniques to forecast the number of forest wildfires (No), the burned area (A), and the mean burned area (MA), on annual basis at regional scales. A comprehensive wildfire data set for coniferous forests of the State of Durango, Mexico was used to fit (1970-2011) and to validate (2012-2016) some modeling techniques. Most tested probabilistic and stochastic models hardly explain 70% of the wildfire variance. However, the teleconnection approach using a combination of large scale and local hydroclimate anomalies better predicted both data sets; explaining nearly 80% of the wildfire variance for fitting and for validating models. Results stress the complexity of interactive factors including the stochastic and underlying physical process that makes the prediction of wildfires losing precision and they should be further considered in future conceptual models. Therefore, proposing a more physical-based and conceptual models including Montecarlo models is an integral component of this paper; with the goal of increasing prediction capabilities and assisting decision-makers on the prevention activities inherent to better control wildfires. This proposed conceptual model stresses the need for using the probabilistic, stochastic and physical techniques to improve sub-model parameterization. Furthermore, the use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques would extract the most likely future scenarios for predicting the risk of high-severity wildfire regimes in temperate forests elsewhere.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo tiene por objetivos: (i) presentar, (ii) probar y (iii) validar un conjunto de técnicas matemáticas para predecir el número de incendios (No), la superficie incendiada (A), y la superficie promedio incendiada (AM), en bases anuales a escalas regionales. Una fuente de datos extensa proveniente de los bosques de coníferas de Durango se usó para ajustar (1970-2011) y validar (2012-2016) las técnicas de modelaje. La mayoría de los modelos probabilísticos y estocásticos explican menos del 70% de la varianza de los incendios. Sin embargo, el método de teleconecciones que emplea variables a escala oceánica y a escala local del hidroclima aumentó el nivel de precisión hasta cerca del 80% de la varianza total para ambas bases de datos. Los resultados muestran la complejidad de los factores que interactúan, incluyendo los procesos estocásticos y los físicos que hacen que las técnicas de predicción sean modificadas substancialmente. Por estas razones, se propone un modelo más físicamente basado y también un modelo conceptual más comprensivo. El modelo conceptual requiere del uso de todas las técnicas presentadas en este reporte, incluyendo los modelos probabilísticos, estocásticos y físicos en la parameterización de los diferentes submodelos. El uso del modelo conceptual además de sus técnicas de simulación Monte Carlo extraerían los escenarios futuros mas probables en la predicción del riesgo de incendios forestales severos en bosques templados del mundo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Probabilistic, Stochastic, Physically-based and Conceptual models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Regional scales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Correlación cruzada]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Ondas de Rayleigh]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Dispersión de velocidad de grupo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Efectos de sitio]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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