<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-8402</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ensayos. Revista de economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ens. Rev. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-8402</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, a través de la Facultad de Economía con la colaboración del Centro de Investigaciones Económicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-84022017000100025</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Desempleo y criminalidad en los estados de la frontera norte de México: un enfoque espacial bayesiano de vectores auto-regresivos]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Unemployment and crime in the Northern-border states of Mexico: a spatial-Bayesian autoregressive vector approach]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Torres Preciado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor Hugo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Colima  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>25</fpage>
<lpage>57</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-84022017000100025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-84022017000100025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-84022017000100025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Ante los recientes episodios de intensificación en la actividad delictiva en México, llama la atención la escasez de estudios que analizan su relación con las fluctuaciones en la tasa de desempleo. El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en evaluar el impacto que tendría un desajuste que incremente sorpresivamente la tasa de desempleo en los estados de la frontera norte, sobre la actividad criminal, en particular respecto del número de robos. Con este fin, se aplica un VAR bayesiano espacial de acuerdo con la propuesta de LeSage y Cashell (2015). Los resultados sugieren que la respuesta del número de robos es heterogénea en los estados de la frontera norte de México. Por ejemplo: en algunos estados como Chihuahua, el número de robos parece responder de forma transitoria; en tanto que en Tamaulipas, este tipo de delito reacciona en menor medida a las fluctuaciones en su tasa de desempleo y la de sus estados vecinos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Despite the recent episodes of criminal activity intensification in Mexico, it is striking the scarcity of studies analyzing its relationship with unemployment rate fluctuations. The aim of this research is to evaluate the impact that an external shock of a surprising increase in unemployment rates would have upon crime activity, particularly, robberies in Mexico&#8217;s northern Border States. To this end, a spatial Bayesian VAR that follows LeSage and Cashell (2015) is applied. Results suggest a heterogeneous response of robberies across northern Border States. For instance, in some states such as Chihuahua, the number of robberies seems to deploy transitory effects, while Tamaulipas appears to be less sensitive to own and neighbor state unemployment fluctuations.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Desempleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Criminalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Robos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Frontera Norte]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Vector Autorregresivo Espacial Bayesiano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Unemployment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Crime]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Robbery]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Northern Border]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Spatial Bayesian Vector Autoregression]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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