<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2016000400725</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v83i332.237</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Efectos de saltos inesperados en el gasto público y variables demográficas en el crecimiento económico. El caso mexicano con un enfoque GARCH con saltos (1936-2012)]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Effects of Unexpected Jumps in Public Expenditure and Demographic Variables on Economic Growth: The Mexican Case with a GARCH-jumps Approach (1936-2012)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Castillo-Ramírez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Claudia Estrella]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Venegas-Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de las Américas Puebla Departamento de Finanzas y Contaduría ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional Escuela Superior de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Facultad de Contaduría y Administración División de Investigación]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>83</volume>
<numero>332</numero>
<fpage>725</fpage>
<lpage>745</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2016000400725&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2016000400725&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2016000400725&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Este artículo desarrolla un modelo estocástico macroeconómico útil para explicar los efectos que tienen los saltos inesperados en el gasto de gobierno per cápita y en variables demográficas en el crecimiento económico per cápita. Para ello se supone que las dinámicas estocásticas del gasto público y de la población son conducidas por procesos de difusión con saltos modulados por una cadena de Markov. Los resultados más importantes son que los saltos bruscos e inesperados en el gasto público per cápita y en el crecimiento de la población impactan negativamente la tasa de crecimiento per cápita del producto. En particular, si hay un salto brusco y repentino en la tasa de crecimiento de la población, entonces el capital per cápita disminuye repentinamente impactando con ello negativamente el producto per cápita. Por último, los resultados teóricos encontrados se complementan con evidencia empírica del caso mexicano obtenida mediante un modelo que toma en cuenta tanto la volatilidad de las tasas de crecimiento de la población y del gasto público per cápita así como las sorpresas en la intensidad de los saltos en esas variables.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This paper is aimed at developing a stochastic macroeconomic model useful to explain the effects of unexpected jumps in government spending per capita and in demographic variables on per capita economic growth. To do this, it is assumed that the stochastic dynamics of output and population are driven by mixed diffusion-jumps processes modulated by a Markov Chain. The most important results are that extreme sudden jumps in government spending per capita and in the population growth rate impact negatively the rate of per capita output growth. In particular, if there is a sudden sharp jump in the rate of population growth, then capital per capita suddenly decreases impacting negatively per capita output. Finally, the theoretical findings are supplemented with empirical evidence about the Mexican case obtained through a model that takes in account the volatility of the growth rates of the population and the per capita public expense as well as the surprises in the jump intensities of both variables.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[gasto de gobierno]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[economía demográfica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[GARCH con saltos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[government spending]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[demographic econom-ics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[GARCH with jumps]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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