<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2016000200275</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Reforma tributaria en fases]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chávez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco Central del Ecuador  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Alberto Hurtado (UAH) Instituto Latinoamericano de Doctrina y Estudios Sociales (ILADES) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>83</volume>
<numero>330</numero>
<fpage>275</fpage>
<lpage>310</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2016000200275&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2016000200275&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2016000200275&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En este artículo el principal objetivo es analizar tanto cualitativa como cuantitativamente el impacto del momento de una reforma tributaria, es decir, el aumento progresivo y avisado (en fases) de los impuestos en contraposición con una reforma de una sola vez. Los resultados indican que una reforma en fase debiera producir dos efectos: un efecto sustitución que impulsa a las empresas a adelantar inversión y con ello debiera aumentar el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) y la inflación. La reacción del banco central debiera ser subir la tasa de interés. El otro efecto es negativo y consiste en un efecto riqueza que reduce el precio de las acciones y aumenta el tipo de cambio, Tomando como ejemplo el caso de Chile, que realizó una reforma en base recientemente (2014): se tiene que un aumento de 1% de los impuestos debería producir, producto de la distorsión intertemporal, un aumento de 0.17% en el PIB dentro del primer año del anuncio. No obstante, pueden existir otros elementos de naturaleza muy heterogénea que pueden influenciar negativamente la implementación de la reforma y, por tanto, cancelar por completo este efecto de sustitución intertemporal. Entre estos elementos negativos se tiene la falta de claridad de la reforma por parte del gobierno, al grado de virulencia de las discusiones en el Congreso y su influencia en las expectativas de los empresarios, la falta de credibilidad, por ejemplo, la incertidumbre de nuevas alzas de impuestos, etcétera.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: The main focus in this study is to analyze, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the impact of a tax reform, i.e., an informed in advance progressive increase (in phases) of taxes as opposed to a reform at once. Our results indicate that a reform in phases should produce two effects: substitution effect that drives companies to bring forward investment and this should increase the GDP and inflation. The reaction of the central bank should be to raise the rate of interest. The other effect is negative and is a wealth effect that reduces the price of the shares and increases the exchange rate. Taking the example of Chile, which conducted a tax reform recently (2014). A 1% increase in taxes should produce, due to the intertemporal distortion, an increase of 0.17% in GDP in the first year of the announcement. However, there may be other elements of diverse nature that may negatively influence the implementation of reform and thus completely cancel the effect of intertemporal substitution. Among these negatives example are the lack the of clarity in the reform by the government, the pessimism in the discussions from opposing views in Congress and its influence on the expectations of employers, lack of credibility, the uncertainty of new tax hikes, etc.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ciclo económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[política fiscal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[econometría bayesiana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos DSGE]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[business cycle]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fiscal policy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[bayesian econometrics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[DSGE models]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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