<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2007000200415</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Redes neuronales en la predicción de las fluctuaciones de la economía a partir del movimiento de los mercados de capitales]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Trigo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Loren]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Costanzo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sabatino]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA) Centro de Producción e Innovación Tecnológica ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Caracas]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA) Centro de Finanzas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Caracas]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>74</volume>
<numero>294</numero>
<fpage>415</fpage>
<lpage>440</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2007000200415&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2007000200415&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2007000200415&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Este estudio analiza la capacidad de las redes neuronales para predecir la dirección de las economías de los Estados Unidos y México, con los índices rezagados de los mercados de capitales de cada país como insumos y el índice compuesto de indicadores adelantados de cada país (LEI, aquí tratado como índice coincidente) como salida resultante. La capacidad predictiva estable y significativa de las redes neuronales utilizadas fue establecida y su superioridad predictiva respecto a la de una regresión múltiple comparable fue medida con el método estadístico de medición de la precisión predictiva elaborado por Anatolyev y Gerko.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This study analyzes the ability of neuronal nets to predict the direction of the U. S. and Mexican economies, with the lagged indexes of the capital markets of each country as inputs and the compound leading economic indicator index (LEI, here treated as a coincident indicator) as output. Neuronal net significant and stable predictive ability was stablished and the predictive superiority of the net with respect to a comparable multiple regression was measured using the predictive accuracy test designed by Anatolyev and Gerko.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[redes neuronales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[fluctuaciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[economía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mercados de capitales]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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