<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-4911</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de opinión pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. opinión pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-4911</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-49112016000200073</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La utilidad de las encuestas en la predicción del voto. La segunda vuelta de Argentina 2015]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The usefulness of surveys in predicting the vote. The second round of Argentina 2015]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[del Tronco Paganelli]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Flores Ivich]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Georgina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Madrigal Ramírez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Abby]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>21</numero>
<fpage>73</fpage>
<lpage>92</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-49112016000200073&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-49112016000200073&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-49112016000200073&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: ¿Es posible predecir los resultados de una elección? ¿Con qué nivel de precisión? ¿Cuán útiles son para ello las encuestas de opinión pública? Este documento busca responder a estos interrogantes a través de una estimación de los resultados electorales de la segunda vuelta (ballotage) en las elecciones presidenciales de Argentina, en 2015, a partir de la información provista por el Latinobarómetro 2015, encuesta anual realizada 9 meses antes de las elecciones. Los resultados del análisis cuantitativo (que estimó los perfiles de los votantes potenciales por medio de una regresión logística) muestran que hubiera sido posible predecir los resultados electorales, tanto de la primera como de la segunda vuelta, en que resultó electo Mauricio Macri, candidato opositor, quien antes de las Primarias Abiertas Simultáneas Obligatorias (PASO) no era considerado una amenaza real para el candidato oficialista Daniel Scioli.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: ¿Is it possible to predict who will win an electoral race? ¿Which is the usefulness of public opinion surveys for that goal? This article seeks to respond this questions through the estimation of electoral results of 2015 Argentinian´s Presidential Election based on the information provided by Latin-barometer 2015, an annual survey run at the beginning of the year, 9 months before the election. The quantitative analysis (logistic regression) shows that final electoral results, as much the first as the second round (where Mauricio Macri, the challenger, was finally and surprisingly elected), could be predicted with the public opinion data included in that survey.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Opinión pública]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Argentina]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicción del voto]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ballotage]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Public opinion]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Argentina]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[voting prediction]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[second round]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cambridge University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B27">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[PÉREZ LIÑÁN]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Aníbal]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[La reversión del resultado en la segunda vuelta electoral. Una evaluación institucional del balotaje]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ Tercer Congreso Internacional de Latinoamericanistas en Europa]]></conf-name>
<conf-loc>Ámsterdam </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B28">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>WORLD Bank</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Datos macroeconómicos de Argentina]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
