<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-2422</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnología y ciencias del agua]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnol. cienc. agua]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-2422</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-24222016000300171</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo probabilístico simple para análisis de frecuencias en registros hidrológicos extremos con tendencia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Simple Probability Model for Frequencies Analysis in Extreme Hydrological Records with Trend]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Campos-Aranda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>171</fpage>
<lpage>186</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-24222016000300171&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-24222016000300171&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-24222016000300171&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Debido a cambios en el clima, en el uso del suelo, principalmente por urbanización, y a los aprovechamientos hidráulicos, los registros de datos hidrológicos extremos han dejado de ser estacionarios, es decir, sus propiedades estadísticas están cambiando en el tiempo. Cuando un registro de crecientes o lluvias máximas, ambas anuales, muestra tendencia estadísticamente diferente de cero, el análisis de frecuencias orientado a estimar sus eventos de diseño debe tomar en cuenta tal comportamiento no aleatorio. El modelo probabilístico más simple que se puede establecer para procesar registros no estacionarios emplea la distribución log-normal de dos parámetros de ajuste, con su media variando en relación con el tiempo como covariable explicativa, según una regresión lineal logarítmica. Este modelo permite estimar el impacto, por ejemplo, al final de una década a futuro, de la tendencia ascendente (descendente) en las predicciones obtenidas al final del registro, a través de dos indicadores: los factores de aumento (disminución) de las predicciones y de la reducción (aumento) de la recurrencia de un evento de un determinado periodo de retorno. El análisis de frecuencias no estacionario con tal modelo se aplica a dos registros de crecientes anuales de la Región Hidrológica núm. 10, Sinaloa, y uno de precipitación máxima diaria anual de la Región Hidrológica núm. 37, El Salado. Las conclusiones destacan la sencillez y utilidad del modelo descrito para abordar de forma inicial los análisis de frecuencias no estacionarios.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Due to climate changes, land use mainly by urbanization and hydraulic works, the records of extreme hydrological data are no longer stationary, that is that their statistical properties are changing over time. When an annual record of floods or maximum rainfall shows a trend statistically different from zero, the frequencies analysis aimed at estimating their design events should take into account such non-random behavior. The simplest probabilistic model that can be established to process non-stationary records relies on the lognormal distribution with two fitting parameters, with time-varying mean as explanatory covariate, according to a logarithmic linear regression. This model allows estimating the impact, for example at the end of a decade in the future, of the upward (downward) trend on the obtained predictions at the end of a record. The latter through two indicators: the predictions magnification (diminution) factors and the reduction (increase) in the recurrence of an event of a given return period. Non-stationary frequencies analysis with such a model is applied to two records of annual floods of the Hydrological Region núm. 10 Sinaloa and one annual daily maximum precipitation of the Hydrological Region núm. 37 El Salado. Conclusions highlight the simplicity and utility of the described model as an initial approach to the non-stationary frequencies analyses.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecientes anuales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[precipitación máxima diaria anual]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución log-normal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[regresión lineal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[error estándar de ajuste]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[factores de aumento de las predicciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Annual floods]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[annual maximum daily precipitation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[log-normal distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[linear regression]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[standard error of fit]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[predictions magnification factors]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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