<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-1132</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias forestales]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-1132</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-11322016000500039</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Cambio climático y predicción de incendios al 2050 en el Bosque La Primavera, Jalisco]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Climate change and prediction of fires for the year 2050 at the La Primavera Forest, Jalisco]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ibarra Montoya]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Luis]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Huerta Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco Martín]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara Centro Universitario de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias Departamento de Ecología]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>37</numero>
<fpage>39</fpage>
<lpage>50</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-11322016000500039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-11322016000500039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-11322016000500039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Durante las últimas dos décadas, los incendios se han incrementado en frecuencia e intensidad en diversas partes del mundo. Las principales causas de estos patrones se asocian, tanto a las actividades de uso de suelo como a los cambios en el clima. El Bosque La Primavera es un área natural protegida de gran importancia, por su cercanía a la ciudad de Guadalajara; de tal suerte que la predicción de incendios es de gran interés, ya que la frecuencia e intensidad de los mismos son una fuerte causa de deterioro de la zona. El objetivo de este trabajo fue construir un modelo espacial para generar un escenario de predicción de incendios para el año 2050 en el Bosque La Primavera, para ello se tomaron como referencia los datos de las proyecciones climáticas para el occidente de México y las ocurrencias históricas de incendios de los últimos años. El modelo predice un área de incendios que cubre casi la totalidad del polígono del área protegida. El mayor efecto del cambio climático en la zona está asociado a la disminución de las precipitaciones y a un aumento en la temperatura, lo cual incide en un incremento del área afectada por los incendios. Bajo ese escenario, el principal desafío será definir, acertadamente, las políticas públicas y estrategias de mitigación, con la finalidad de promover que el Bosque La Primavera sea más saludable, en términos de conservación, productividad, diversidad y resiliencia, lo que asegurará una provisión continua de servicios ecosistémicos bajo un clima cambiante.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract During the last two decades, forest fires have increased in frequency and intensity in various parts of the world. The main causes of these patterns are associated both with land-use activities and with climate change. The La Primavera Forest is a highly important natural reserve due to its proximity to the city of Guadalajara; therefore, the prediction of fires is of great interest, as the frequency and intensity of forest fires are a major cause of deterioration of the area. The objective of this work was to build a spatial model in order to generate a fire prediction scenario for the year 2050 in the La Primavera Forest, for which purpose the data of climate projections for western Mexico and the historical occurrences of fires in the last few years were taken as a reference. The model predicts a fire zone that covers the protected area almost in its entirety. The most prominent effect of climate change in the area is associated to the reduction of precipitations and to an increase in the temperature, which results in an increase of the surface area affected by the fires. Under this scenario, the main challenge would be to aptly define the mitigation policies and strategies for promoting a healthier La Primavera Forest in terms of conservation, productivity, diversity and resilience, which will ensure the ongoing provision of ecosystemic services under a changing climate.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Degradación ambiental]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escenarios futuros]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo espacial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SIG]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[uso de suelo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Environmental degradation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[future scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Spatial model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[GIS]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[land use]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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