<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362025000100016</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.53435</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Analysis of extreme precipitation in eastern China from 1960 to 2020 and future projections]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Qin]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Qingquan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Li]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Haoxin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yao]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Li]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Xinyong]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Shen]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Xiaoyan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Zhang]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Nanjing ]]></addr-line>
<country>China</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Beijing ]]></addr-line>
<country>China</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology School of Atmospheric Sciences ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Nanjing ]]></addr-line>
<country>China</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Meteorologic Bureau of Jiangxia District  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Wuhan ]]></addr-line>
<country>China</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>39</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362025000100016&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362025000100016&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362025000100016&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT This study analyzes extreme precipitation in eastern China over the past 60 years through climatology and trend detection, with future projections using 10 indices. Data from 1310 meteorological stations and 20 CMIP6 models were employed to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of these indices from 1961 to 2020 during summer, both regionally and across eight major river basins. Key findings include: (1) the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation generally decreases from south to north and east to west. High-value centers for extreme precipitation are found south of the Yangtze River, while the maximum consecutive wet days decline from the southeast coast inland. (2) Extreme summer precipitation in eastern China increased over six decades, with intensity, 1-day max, heavy, extreme heavy precipitation, and very heavy rain days rising at 0.03, 0.11, 0.22, 0.13 mm yr-1, and 0.02 d yr-1, respectively. Trends show growth in the Yangtze River Basin and the northeast, but declines in the Hai and Yellow River basins, with decreases up to 0.50 mm yr-1. (3) Multi-model ensemble simulations reliably capture summer extreme precipitation trends, indicating that by 2060, heavy and extreme precipitation amounts will increase by up to 10% under SSP-1.26. Higher carbon emissions will further accelerate this increase, particularly in the southeast rivers, the Pearl River, and the Yangtze River basins. These results provide important references for predicting extreme precipitation in eastern China.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Este estudio analiza las precipitaciones extremas en el este de China durante los últimos 60 años mediante climatología y detección de tendencias, con proyecciones futuras utilizando 10 índices. Se emplearon datos de 1310 estaciones meteorológicas y 20 modelos CMIP6 para examinar la evolución espaciotemporal de estos índices desde 1961 hasta 2020 durante el verano, tanto a nivel regional como en ocho principales cuencas fluviales. Los principales hallazgos incluyen: 1) la distribución espacial de las precipitaciones extremas generalmente disminuye de sur a norte y de este a oeste. Se encuentran centros de alta precipitación al sur del río Yangtsé, mientras que los máximos de días consecutivos húmedos disminuyen desde la costa sureste hacia el interior. 2) Las precipitaciones extremas de verano en el este de China aumentaron durante seis décadas, con incrementos en la intensidad, el máximo de un día, las precipitaciones fuertes, las precipitaciones extremadamente fuertes y los días de lluvia muy fuerte, de 0.03, 0.11, 0.22, 0.13 mm año-1 y 0.02 días año-1, respectivamente. Las tendencias muestran un aumento en la cuenca del río Yangtsé y el noreste, pero una disminución en las cuencas de los ríos Hai y Amarillo, con caídas de hasta 0.50 mm año-1. 3) Las simulaciones de conjuntos multimodelo capturan de manera confiable las tendencias de las precipitaciones extremas de verano, indicando que para 2060 se proyecta un aumento de hasta el 10% en las precipitaciones fuertes y extremas en el escenario SSP-1.26. Las emisiones más altas de carbono acelerarán aún más este aumento, particularmente en las cuencas de los ríos del sureste, el río Perla y el río Yangtsé. Estos resultados proporcionan referencias importantes para predecir precipitaciones extremas en el este de China.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[eastern China]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[extreme precipitation indices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dual carbon goals]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[future projections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[spatiotemporal evolution]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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