<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362020000400401</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.52757</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Trend estimation and forecasting of atmospheric pollutants in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area through a non-parametric perspective]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramos-Ibarra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Elba]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Silva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eliud]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas A.C (CIMAT)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Guanajuato Guanajuato]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Anáhuac México Facultad de Ciencias Actuariales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Huixquilucan Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>33</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>401</fpage>
<lpage>420</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362020000400401&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362020000400401&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362020000400401&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Trends and forecasts of the main atmospheric pollutants (O3, SO2, NO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO and NOx) are estimated by regions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) with maximum daily data from 2008 to 2018. A non-parametric statistical smoothing controlled technique based on the Hodrick and Prescott filter and estimated through the Kalman filter, is used. Both point and interval estimates, as well as their respective forecasts are generated. Estimates are compared against the environmental standard for Mexico City (NADF-009-AIRE-2017), and it is evident that, in general, they are still distant from good air quality in the MCMA, as opposed to CO and NO2. The remaining pollutants have trends and forecasts that are far from the permissible limits.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Se estiman los pronósticos y tendencias de los princcipales contaminantes atmosféricos (O3, SO2, NO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO y NOx) por regiones en la Zona Metropolitana de la Ciudad de México (ZMCM) con valores máximos diarios de 2008 a 2018. Se utilizó una técnica controlada no paramétrica de suavizado basada en el filtro de Hodrick y Prescott y estimada medianta el filtro de Kalman. Se generan tanto estimaciones puntuales como de intervalo, junto con sus respectivos pronósticos. Las estimaciones se confrontaron con la Norma Ambiental para la Ciudad de México (NADF-009-AIRE-2017) y es evidente que, en general, aún están lejos de cumplir con un estándar de buena calidad del aire en la ZMCM, en comparación con el CO y el NO2. Las tendencias y pronósticos del resto de los contaminantes superan ampliamente los límites permitidos.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[trend]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[controlled smoothing]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[smoothness index]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[smoothing parameter]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Hodrick and Prescott filter]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Kalman filter]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasts]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[atmospheric pollutants]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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