<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-7210</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Estudios demográficos y urbanos]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Estud. demogr. urbanos]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-7210</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-72102007000100101</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24201/edu.v22i1.1295</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La expansión urbana probable de la Ciudad de México. Un escenario pesimista y dos alternativos para el año 2020]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mexico City&#8217;s Probable Urban Expansion. A Pessimistic Scenario and Two Alternatives for the Year 2020]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Suárez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Delgado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Facultad de Filosofía y Letras ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Geografía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>101</fpage>
<lpage>142</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-72102007000100101&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-72102007000100101&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-72102007000100101&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN De acuerdo con las proyecciones del Consejo Nacional de Población (Conapo), la Zona Metropolitana de la Ciudad de México (ZMCM) albergará una población de más de 21 millones de habitantes para 2020. Suponiendo que estas estimaciones fueran correctas, es importante prever en dónde se llevará a cabo este crecimiento y cómo afectará la estructura urbana. En este ensayo se analizan tres escenarios de expansión metropolitana elaborados conforme a diferentes supuestos de densidad poblacional y estimados mediante un análisis estadístico espacial por medio del Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG). Los resultados revelan una expansión de la superficie urbana para el año 2020, según el escenario, de entre 38 mil y 56 mil hectáreas. Se concluye que se requieren de modelos de administración pública metropolitana conjunta para controlar la forma de expansión y para regular los usos de suelo de la ZMCM.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT According to the forecasts of the National Population Council (Conapo), by 2020, the Mexico City Metropolitan Zone (MCMZ) will house a population of over 21 million inhabitants. Assuming that these estimates are correct, it is important to predict where this growth will take place and how it will affect the urban structure. This essay analyzes three scenarios of metropolitan expansion drawn up on the basis of different assumptions of population density and estimates through a spatial statistical analysis using the Geographical Information System. The results reveal an expansion of the urban area by the year 2020, according to the scenario, of between 38,000 and 56,000 hectares. The authors conclude that models of joint metropolitan public administration are required to control the form of expansion and regulate MCMZ land uses.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[expansión urbana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[urbanización]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[uso de suelo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento poblacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[urban expansion]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[urbanization]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[land use]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[population growth]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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