<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672020000100035</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.311.72434</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estimación de la tasa de interés neutral, desempleo e inflación en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Estimation of the neutral interest rate, unemployment and inflation in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez Vargas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Armando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>79</volume>
<numero>311</numero>
<fpage>35</fpage>
<lpage>53</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672020000100035&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672020000100035&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672020000100035&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen ¿Cuáles son los mecanismos de transmisión que determinan a la tasa de interés neutral que sirve de referencia para establecer la postura de política monetaria del Banco Central? Se analiza el papel de la tasa de desocupación y la inflación en la determinación de la tasa de interés neutral. La conclusión es que el Banco de México podría tomar una postura de política monetaria más expansiva sin generar presiones inflacionarias. La tasa de interés se calcula con: 1) la regla de Taylor y un sistema de ecuaciones simultáneas cointegrado y 2) la paridad de tasas de interés. Los resultados sugieren que la tasa de interés neutral cambia a través de dos mecanismos: 1) de manera indirecta cuando se presenta una variación en la tasa de desocupación, lo que genera un cambio en la inflación y, por tanto, un desplazamiento de la tasa neutral, y 2) de manera directa cuando hay una reducción en la brecha del producto interno bruto.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract What are the transmission mechanisms determining the neutral rate of interest that serves as a reference to establish the monetary policy stance of the Central Bank? We analyze the role of unemployment and inflation in determining such neutral rate. We conclude that the Banco de México could take a more expansive monetary policy stance without generating inflationary pressures. The rate is calculated using two methods: 1) the Taylor rule and a cointegrated simultaneous equations system and 2) the interest rate parity. Our results suggest that the neutral interest rate changes through two mechanisms: 1) indirectly when there is a variation in the unemployment rate, which generates a change in inflation and, therefore, a shift in the neutral rate and 2) directly when there is a reduction in the Gross Domestic Product gap.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tasa de interés neutral]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[política monetaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Simultaneous equation model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[neutral interest rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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