<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672004000400047</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Enfoque metodológico para un modelo de pronósticos de alta frecuencia para la economía mexicana]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Methodologic Approach for a Model of Prognoses of High Frequency for the Mexican Economy]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Klein]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lawrence R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Coutiño]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alfredo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Pennsylvania  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Filadelfia Pensilvania]]></addr-line>
<country>Estados Unidos</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2004</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2004</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>63</volume>
<numero>250</numero>
<fpage>47</fpage>
<lpage>58</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672004000400047&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672004000400047&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672004000400047&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En este estudio se presenta un método para estimar el producto interno bruto (PIB) trimestral real y sus principales componentes, en anticipación a su publicación oficial. La técnica combina información de alta frecuencia, ecuaciones de series de tiempo y análisis de regresión. La metodología propuesta se basa en la estimación del PIB trimestral a través de tres enfoques independientes: producción, gasto, y componentes principales. Es decir, utiliza un enfoque similar al de las cuentas nacionales para la determinación de la producción de bienes y servicios de demanda final en una economía abierta. El modelo resultante constituye un sistema de relaciones puramente econométrico y que funciona sin la intervención subjetiva del economista en la determinación de supuestos arbitrarios o condiciones iniciales. Esta metodología permite anticipar el PIB del trimestre corriente utilizando información mensual de indicadores económicos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: A method for anticipating quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its main components, in advance of the official publication, is presented in this study. The technique combines the use of high-frequency information, times series equations, and regression analysis. The methodology estimates the quarterly GDP by three independent approaches: production, expenditure, and by principal components. It is based on the same approach used in the preparation of the national accounts, to estimate the production of final goods and services in an open economy. The model constitutes a system of purely econometric relationships with no subjective intervention of the economist in the determination of arbitrary assumptions or initial conditions. This methodology allows us to anticipate the current quarter GDP using monthly economic indicators.]]></p></abstract>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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