<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672003000100093</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El papel del endeudamiento exterior en el crecimiento económico de los países subdesarrollados: la inevitabilidad de la deuda externa]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The Role of Foreign Debt in the Economic Growth of Developing Countries: the Inevitability of External Debt]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Herrera Revuelta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Julio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santamaría Fidalgo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales Departamento de Historia, Instituciones y Economía Aplicada]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2003</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2003</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>62</volume>
<numero>244</numero>
<fpage>93</fpage>
<lpage>118</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672003000100093&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672003000100093&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672003000100093&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En este trabajo proponemos una hipótesis alternativa en el análisis del papel jugado por el endeudamiento exterior sobre el crecimiento de los países no desarrollados. Aunque existe un amplio consenso sobre las causas inmediatas de la crisis de deuda externa que comenzaron a sufrir los países empobrecidos (subdesarrollados o en vías de desarrollo) a partir de 1982, nosotros proponemos una lectura de dicha crisis en un contexto de largo plazo, es decir de crecimiento. En este trabajo hemos encontrado una anomalía importante en el papel que juega el comercio internacional en países con muy distinto desarrollo. Mientras que en los países subdesarrollados las mayores tasas de crecimiento se consiguen con déficit comercial, en los países ricos su crecimiento se ajusta al equilibrio de balanza comercial. En nuestro modelo empírico hemos recuperado las reflexiones teóricas de Harrod, Kalecki, y Thirwall. Hemos utilizado diferentes metodologías cuantitativas. Primero hemos estimado un modelo de desequilibrio dinámico, con dos versiones -ajuste vía precios y ajuste vía rentas. En segundo lugar, hemos usado las técnicas de cointegración para obtener las funciones de exportación e importación y calcular la tasa de crecimiento compatible con el equilibrio externo utilizando los parámetros estimados en dichas ecuaciones. Por último, hemos utilizado los datos de panel para estudiar si existen impactos diferentes del comercio exterior sobre el crecimiento de países ricos y de países empobrecidos Los resultados del contraste parecen confirmar que solamente con endeuda miento externo en los países empobrecidos más avanzados ha sido posible conseguir sus tasas de crecimiento económico.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This paper proposes an alternative hypothesis in the analysis of the role played by external debt in the growth of under-developed countries. Even though a broad consensus exists regarding the immediate causes of the external debt crisis suffered by poorer countries (under-developed or developing) since 1982, this article suggests a reading of said crisis in a long-term context, in other words in the context of growth. This study has encountered a significant anomaly regarding the role international commerce plays in countries with very different levels of development. Whilst in under-developed countries, greater growth rates are achieved through commercial deficit, growth in the rich countries varies according to the equilibrium of the trade balance. The empirical model used in this study incorporates the theoretical reflections of Harrod, Kalecki, and Thirwall, but utilizing different quantitative methodologies. First, an estimation was made of a dynamic disequilibrium model in two versions -adjustment via prices, and adjustment via profits. Then co-integration techniques were used to obtain the export and import functions, and to calculate the growth rate compatible with the external equilibrium, utilizing the parameters estimated in said equations. Finally, panel data were used to study whether foreign trade makes a different impact on growth in rich and poor countries. The results of the contrast seem to confirm that the more advanced poorer countries have only managed to attain rates of economic growth by incurring external debt.]]></p></abstract>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alonso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Growth and the external constraint: Lessons from the Spanish case]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Applied Economics]]></source>
<year>1997</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alonso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Garcimartin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[La restricción externa al crecimiento: Nuevos enfoques]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista de Economía Aplicada]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<volume>VI</volume>
<numero>16</numero>
<issue>16</issue>
<page-range>5-37</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Atesoglu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Balance of Payments Constrained Growth. Evidence from the United States]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Post Keynesian Economics]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<volume>15</volume>
<page-range>55-72</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Atesoglu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Balance of Payments Determined Growth in Germany]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Applied Economics Letters]]></source>
<year>1994</year>
<volume>1</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<issue>6</issue>
<page-range>89-91</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bairam]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Balance of Payments, the Harrod Foreign Multiplier and Economic Growth: The European and North American Experience]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Applied Economics]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<numero>20</numero>
<issue>20</issue>
<page-range>1635-42</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bairam]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dempster]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Harrod Foreign Multiplier and Economic Growth in Asian Countries]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Applied Economics]]></source>
<year>1991</year>
<volume>23</volume>
<numero>11</numero>
<issue>11</issue>
<page-range>1719-24</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dickey]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fuller]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of the American Statistical Association]]></source>
<year>1981</year>
<volume>75</volume>
<page-range>427-31</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gandolfo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Qualitative Analysis and Econometric Estimation of Continuos Time Dynamic Models]]></source>
<year>1981</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[North Holland ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Harrod]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[International Economics]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cambridge ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<page-range>231-54</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kalecki]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Ensayo sobre las economías en vías de desarrollo]]></source>
<year>1976</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Barcelona ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editorial Crítica]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Marmol]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Cointegración: Una panorámica actualizada]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Solow]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The Quaterly Journal of Economics]]></source>
<year>1956</year>
<volume>70</volume>
<page-range>65-94</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Talavera Déniz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[La estructura económica mundial (II): los flujos financieros Centro/Periferia]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vidal Villa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. Mª.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez Peinado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Economía Mundial]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Madrid ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editorial McGraw-Hill]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Thirwall]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Balance of Payments Constraint as a Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Quaterly Review, Banca Nazionale di Lavoro]]></source>
<year>1979</year>
<volume>32</volume>
<numero>128</numero>
<issue>128</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
