Introduction

The sayings, sapiensas or proverbs date from ancient times; they are constituted into a form of popular knowledge, based on repeated observations by multiple people throughout many years, and they are the result of the existence of collective memory; they are considered wise men’s sayings about which they could not argue and none was so wise as to being right as often as the people. Thus, the sayings were there as principle and there was no need to explain them, but there had to be some observation, not in terms of the intrinsic value but rather its use, in which they demanded certain restraint (^{Gallego, 2011}). Then, the proverbs are phraseological statements emanated from the synthesis of popular wisdom and they are source of knowledge that helps to understand daily reality; in addition to enrichening the language they reflect the practices of the culture of a people (^{González, 2015}). They are based on the observation of nature and the knowledge that has been translated into phrases, proverbs and sayings, and in our days they are important fundamentally among the rural population.

According to ^{Sevilla and Crida (2013)}, currently they are defined as “a saying of anonymous origin and popular use whose structure is generally in two parts, with presence of mnemonic elements, with potential presence of funny elements, based on experience and with value of universal truth, in their majority”; and they classify them into temporal and meteorological proverbs, which means that in the traditional knowledge the proverbs have been applied in the meteorological forecast that represent factors which are crucial to farmers. In Europe, there is a Database about Calendar and Meteorological Proverbs in the Romania (Base de Datos Sobre Refranes del Calendario y Meteorológicos en la Romania, BADARE); in it the wealth of the patrimonial knowledge, shared around popular meteorology by the romance peoples of the old continent, is shown. For example, Saint Cristopher with a hat, or water up to the bluff (mountain near Pamplona) (^{Gargallo et al., 2008}). The proverbs used in the region of Sinazongwe, Zambia, are applied as meteorological predictors, although in certain cases rainfall is difficult to predict in lands with different slopes; the databases that are used are primordial to estimate the local potential of climate, which is related to future climate changes (^{Kanno et al., 2013}).

In Pre-Hispanic México of the 7th to 14th Centuries, the deity Tláloc had a prominent place; thanks to him the land could be kept fertile and men could live; they symbolized God representing him with rings around the eyes, similar to glasses that simulated the clouds (^{De Pedraza, 2014}). In the Sierra Purépecha they managed to relate the physical aspects with the perception of changes in the rainy period, low temperatures and hail storms which are crucial for rainfed agriculture; in addition, they considered the spatial differentiation of temperature, slope, soil fertility, and the socioeconomic situation inside and outside the community (^{Magaña, 2008}).

^{Oliviusson (2010)} considers that the use of proverbs is to transmit messages of moral type with the intention of criticizing the society in which they have become institutionalized. Under the “traditional” approach there are sayings that help them to overcome difficult situations, where any aspect of human life is reflected in them and their application field presents a large variety given its thematic range, because they are circumscribed to a geographic zone, to a concrete scope, whether labor or social (^{Sevilla and Cantera, 2002}). Then, it can be said that the proverbs refer to local contexts and not universal ones, and that they cover periods in the short and long term. What is true is that we are dealing with popular knowledge and scientific knowledge.

In peasant knowledge, ^{González (2008)} mentions that they originated from the accumulation of experiences, knowledge, beliefs and customs that are consistent between each other, where the understandings are the empirical knowledge of peasants. The formal study of traditional knowledge systems has allowed understanding that there are cognitive systems made up of praxis and corpus that are interdependent, where the corpus is nothing but the sum and repertoire of signs, symbols, concepts and perceptions of what is considered the traditional cognitive system (^{Torres and Valdivia, 2012}). The peasant worldview stands out here, which, according to ^{Juárez (2010)}, stems from the systematic observation of nature, where contemplation and reflections around it were tested day to day, allowing them to classify, forecast and formulate knowledge that make up the communities in their lifestyles.

^{Mesa et al. (1997)} mention that popular meteorology has made available to country people a general and open scheme to program agricultural tasks, constituting the Collection of Proverbs into a fundamental deposit of popular meteorological knowledge. This is why most of the proverbs about time have their origin in the rural environment and frequently link meteorology and agriculture, allowing them to focus from a multidisciplinary perspective, integrating geographic, linguistic, historical, anthropological, etc., contents, developing teachinglearning strategies based on inquiry and empirical research (^{Gaite, 2011}), where the knowledge of peasants has been saved and systematized through climatic indicators in their culture, which has the practical finality of preventing what can happen with climate characteristics and their effects on the farming season (^{Claverías, 2000}).

The sayings that refer to the climate allude to three parameters: temperature, precipitation and wind regime. Their study is complemented with the analysis of the influence that it exerts on human activities and specifically on agriculture. This is why some proverbs refer to the climate -temperatures and precipitation - and others relate atmospheric time and agriculture (^{Marrón, 2011}). This is why observing the sky has been a preoccupation of man to understand the influence of celestial bodies on vegetative cycles. This practice developed the understanding of popular knowledge that has allowed forecasting climate time in specific days of the year. Here the previsions are made in the short term for the next hours or days, and in the long term for the arrival of the rain season and for the whole year (^{Blanc and Blanc, 2003}). It is the case of the so-called tiemperos, who, according to ^{Juárez (2010}), are based on certain elements of nature to forecast the rain season. Then there can be talk of the development of traditional knowledge about their territory, expressed in the capacity to minimize risks, in an efficient production derived from the mixture of crops, the restoration of soil fertility through rotation with pulses (^{Altieri and Nicholls, 2000}).

With regards to the objectivity of the proverbs, there are scholars who mention that it would be reductionist to think that the meteorological proverbs are simply a fragmentary manual of pre-scientific methods for climate prediction, since meteorological sayings constitute small treaties that synthesize popular knowledge accumulated during centuries through the empirical observation of time, in an easy and simple way for their communication, without the need to adopt technical language or for the receiver to have specialized knowledge (^{Álvarez, 2013}). In this sense there are three types of meteorological sayings according to their veracity: those that are not true, since there is some superstition, and which have remained among the inhabitants because of their antiquity and the rhyme they have; those that are displaced from their scope of action, which make up the group of meteorological sayings; and the true proverbs, which are based generally on the direct observation of the phenomenon and whose veracity is confirmed by meteorology (^{Conde, 1998}).

According to ^{Fernández de Arróyabe (1999)}, in this type of proverbs their objectivity and the value of experience depend, among other aspects, on the reliability of memory. He also mentions that on occasions the coincidences between the physical reality and popular knowledge are separated by errors of perception and topics are established that are not adjusted to the meteorological and climatic reality which can only be solved from the scientific point of view. In addition, ^{Álvarez (2013)} mentions that it must be taken into account that sayings of this type inform about the meteorological behavior in concrete zones, with a particular microclimate that can vary from one space to another because the morphology, the wind dynamics, the type of terrain, among others, are different. The passing of time also needs to be taken into account - since it is said that even the collection of sayings suffers transformations over time - and the change in customs, which cause their veracity to begin to be questioned (^{Conde, 1998}).

In their turn, ^{Rodríguez et al. (2004)} mention that the veracity or falsehood of the meteorological proverbs is not intrinsic and it is determined by the fundamental aspect of meteorological science: the location, which the more precise it is the greater the possibility of being proven. Currently, meteorological prediction can be performed through statistical techniques; the most usual, and which offers best results, is based on the solution through mathematical equations that correspond to physical laws which describe the behavior of the atmosphere. Although the meteorological prediction techniques have evolved, on occasions mistakes are made because the models fail or because the meteorologist does not interpret well the model’s results (meteorological maps) (^{Rodríguez et al., 2004}).

It can be said that the accumulation of knowledge in the proverbs was based on observation, highlighting that of the skies, the moon, and the cabañuelas; however, in face of climate change, the method that is closest is the interpretation of the moon (^{Blanc and Blanc, 2003}), which is why currently the peasant understandings are considered inadequate, even backwards, but are also recognized as appropriate and revolutionized with specific problems of environmental limitations (^{Knight, 1980}). Within the context of traditional knowledge, the local answers to the new experiences of climate change are being incorporated into the endogenous perceptions in a selective, fragmented and modified manner, but they can constitute an important practical approach to face such changes and even articulate them with the policies of local development to face the risks and identify the problems of vulnerability at the local and regional scale (^{Molina, 2014}).

In face of this new current, ^{Rúa (2013)} mentions that they accumulate collective knowledge based on the experience of hundreds of generations even if lacking scientific precision, and that many official meteorologists have come to defend these truths contained in the meteorological proverbs, despite some possibly being based on superstitions or beliefs, others stemming from ancient empiricism and some meteorological assertions having not even changed in our days. The objective of the research was to explain the relationship of the annual distribution of rain at the pentad scale with the proverbs and yields of two “good” years, 1980 and 2013; a “regular” year, 1987; and a “bad” one, 2011, in two municipalities of the central-eastern region of Puebla.

General characteristics of the municipalities of study and methodology

The study was carried out in the municipalities of Chalchicomula de Sesma and Tlachichuca (Figure 1). The first municipality is located between parallels 18° 52’ and 19° 05’ of latitude north and meridians 97° 16’ and 97° 34’ of longitude west; the second is located between parallels 19° 02’ and 19° 16’ of latitude north and meridians 97° 12’ and 97° 30’ of longitude west. The land use destined to agriculture occupies 79%; the urban zone, 3%; the forest, 14 %; the grasslands, 3 %; and the shrubs, 1 % (^{INAFED, 2010}). In Tlachichuca, the land use and vegetation corresponds to agriculture (49.53 %) and urban zone (0.57 %), forest (35.75%), grassland (7.64%) and scrubland (4.35 %) (^{INEGI, 2010}).

Source: authors’ elaboration, 2010.

Figure 1 Geographic location of the municipalities of study. 

The selection of the study site was because these municipalities are considered of high productive potential and have the highest maize yields in the state of Puebla; in addition, they have meteorological stations that allow gaining information about climatological variables from the years selected as good, regular and bad, which were identified according to the perception of the producers surveyed. The instrument used to gather the information was the questionnaire applied to a total of 70 farmers from both municipalities. To select the producers, the main criterion used was experience of over 30 years in agricultural practices and that they cultivate their lands under rainfed conditions. These indicators allowed guaranteeing that those surveyed had knowledge about the proverbs and their fulfillment.

The questions from the questionnaire were focused on identifying the perception that farmers have regarding good, regular and bad agricultural years, in addition to exploring the fulfillment of seven proverbs or popular sayings applied to the weather and which are related to agriculture:

• 1. Dry times in March mean rains in May or, in other words, “dry March, rainy May”. (Las secas de marzo son lluvias en mayo o, lo que es lo mismo, “seco marzo, lluvioso mayo”.)

• 2. Heat in early March is quite healthy for the country. (Calor de marzo temprano, es para el campo muy sano.)

• 3. Rain in April, grains in the thousands. (Lluvia en abril, granos en mil.)

• 4. Water in May, bread for the whole year. (Agua de mayo, pan para todo el año.) 5. If Winter becomes Summer, Summer becomes Winter. (Si el invierno veranea, el verano invernea.)

• 6. In September either the fountains dry up or the bridges overflow. (En septiembre o seca las fuentes o se lleva los puentes.)

• 7. El Cordonazo de San Francisco. It refers to the first cold time of the year; October 4th is the date assigned by the ephemeris to celebrate Saint Francis of Assisi.

Descriptive statistics were used to interpret the information; the square Chi test was used and a logistic regression was applied to a group of different social, economic and agronomic variables of the producers surveyed to explore the acceptance and lack of acceptance of the proverbs. To verify the fulfillment of the proverbs from the years identified in the surveys, information from the meteorological station located in Ciudad Serdán with key 21026 was used; the program developed in Mathlab, version 5, was applied in order to obtain graphs related to variables of minimum temperature, total maximum, and average of five days (pentads) of precipitation to gain a better appreciation of the intermittence of that variable. The seven sayings were related to the annual progress of the climatological variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation) for each year identified according to the producers’ perception.

Results and discussIon

The farmers surveyed have valuable experience in agricultural activities and specifically in maize production; this is evidenced in their average age (58.5 years) and in their experience working in the countryside (41 years). Sowing this crop is something rooted in the municipalities of study. The average agricultural surface detected was four hectares, with the ejido predominating (85.7 %). These data emphasize that there is small-scale agriculture, product of the agricultural policy that has driven a dual agriculture that the entrepreneurial sector has privileged over small-scale agriculture representing more than 80 % of farms in Latin America, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (^{FAO, 2011}).

With regards to the proverbs, ^{Pelosse (1997)} mentions that popular meteorological knowledge is rural, local and linked to agricultural practices, fishing and navigation. In this sense it was found that the totality of those surveyed understands the proverbs that refer to agriculture, such as “Dry times in March mean rains in May”, in other words, “dry March, rainy May”. “Heat in early March is quite healthy for the country.” “Rain in April, grains in the thousands.” “Water in May, bread for the whole year.” “If Winter becomes Summer, Summer becomes Winter.” “In September either the fountains dry up or the bridges overflow.” “El Cordonazo de San Francisco” refers to the first cold time of the year, October 4th. In that sense, ^{Rudnev (1997)} also reasserts that the proverbs are local and he confirms this with one of the Russian peasants who say: “May to June with water, with weed”, “Much snow, much bread”. It is closely related to the abundance of bread and hay, and with the specific character of the local climate conditions that reflect the folkloric singularities observed in the weather.

Concerning the certainty of the proverbs, 54.3% had the opinion that they are still fulfilled; these results are somewhat similar to those found in a study carried out by ^{Conde (1998)} in Galicia. Here, 38 % of those surveyed considered the sayings to be true, 13.7 % said they were false, and 41.1% thought that they are sometimes true. In this sense, they argued that the ones that are most often fulfilled are: “Heat in early March is quite healthy for the country” (40%), “Water in May, bread for the whole year” (31.1 %), and “In September, either the fountains dry up or the bridges overflow” (28.6 %). The ones that were least fulfilled were: “Dry times in March mean rains in May” or, in other words, “dry March, rainy May” (32.9 %), “Rain in April, grains in the thousands” (20%), and “El Cordonazo de San Francisco”, October 4th, celebrating Saint Francis of Assisi, first cold time of the year (17.1 %). ^{Conde (1998)} mentions that with passing time the collection of proverbs has suffered transformations and that the change in customs is making it so their veracity is beginning to be questioned.

In this regard, ^{Pelosse (1997)} argues that scientific meteorology acquired the technical means for true weather prediction, while popular beliefs continue at the local scale of “micro-climate” (within a radius of 10 km), where orographic pressures and various random factors intervene. It is important to highlight that a coincidence was found between the good years (1980 and 2013) and the sayings that the farmers mentioned; among the ones that were fulfilled most are: “Heat in early March is quite healthy for the country”; “Rain in April, grains in the thousands”; “Water in May, bread for the whole year”; “In September, either the fountains dry up or the bridges overflow”, and “El Cordonazo de San Francisco”.

The proverbs that the farmers said are least fulfilled were present primarily in the bad year (2011) and the regular year (1987), and they were: “Dry times in March mean rains in May”, in other words, “dry March, rainy May”. “Heat in early March is quite healthy for the country”. “Rain in April, grains in the thousands”. “Water in May, bread for the whole year” and “If Winter becomes Summer, Summer becomes Winter” (Table 1). To understand what are the factors related to the acceptance or lack of acceptance of the sayings, according to the logistic regression model applied to a group of different social, economic and agronomic variables of maize producers in the municipalities of study, after a process of variable selection it was found that the yield, the practices that the farmers carry out to improve maize production, and the time that rainfall lasts in minutes, were significant (Table 2); that is, that there is an association between the yield, performing productive practices, and rainfall with the acceptance or lack of acceptance of the proverbs.

Table 1 Proverbs identified and their relationship with the yields of the study region. 

Source: authors’ elaboration from data from the survey, 2014.

Table 2 Estimators of the logistic regression model with the method of selection through steps forward (Wald). 

Source: authors’ elaboration from data from the survey, 2014.

It is suggested that the yields and the productive practices -fertilization and pest control- and the duration of rainfall have direct and indirect effects on the farmers in terms of the acceptance and lack of acceptance of the proverbs. These results coincide with the opinion of those surveyed, who in average mentioned that since 9.7 years ago they have observed that the climate is changing and they gave as argument that it does not rain as before in the region and that drought and frosts are more frequent. This result agrees with the research by ^{Ramírez (2013)}, who found that the factor that affects most the countryside is the frequency of disasters, such as droughts, frosts and impact on the surface affected and effect on the yields, increasing the vulnerability of the rainfed maize production. The farmers had the opinion that proverbs are still being fulfilled and the ones who said that they are not anymore had the same opinion statistically (c²=0.564; p=0.754). Regarding the main problems that agricultural activities have, they mentioned the prices of their maize products (34.3 %), climate (35.7 %), and costs of the fertilizer (30.0 %). In this sense, the farmers not only have to fight against the agricultural policy, but also against the weather. In this regard, ^{Juárez and Ramírez-Valverde (2013)} mention that farmers facing the agricultural policy at the time of investing in maize production are careful and they don’t invest more than what is considered adequate. When analyzing the seven proverbs and study years (1980, 1987, 2011 and 2013), it was found that they explain the climate variables to a greater or lesser degree. When analyzing the year 1980 -considered as good- it was found that for the saying, “Dry times in March mean rains in May” or, in other words, “dry March, rainy May”, an absence of rain was observed during the month of March, with rainfall being present in May, during, during the six pentads, with the second one standing out with 36 mm and the fifth one with 21 mm. For “Heat in early March is quite healthy for the country”, during May there were temperatures of 27.6 °C and 30.2 °C in the pentads 2 and 7. For “Rain in April, grains in the thousands”, six pentads were calculated in April; four contributed with rains, two at the beginning (4 mm and 12 mm) and two at the end (5 mm and 4 mm), with a total of 16 mm, with the rain distribution being adequate for a sowing date. For the saying “Water in May, bread for the whole year”, the month of May had a precipitation of more than 120 mm. For “If Winter becomes Summer, Summer becomes Winter”, in the summer, June-July-August, there were not conditions that showed hours of cold / frosts. The saying “In September, either the fountains dry up or the bridges overflow”, which includes water, there was always a positive accumulation trend per pentad. As consequence of humid midsummer heat, of having “saturated field capacity”, if there is cyclonic rainfall it will drain with scarce infiltration; then, all the water accumulated in the watershed will generate a current of possibilities of “risk increase” downstream. Generally, the producers expect the first frosts at the end of September; according to the proverb, “El Cordonazo de San Francisco”, which coincides with the pentad from October 2nd to 6th, the first “agronomic” frost was present, with a minimum average temperature of 3.8 °C. For this good year the seven proverbs were fulfilled (Figure 2).

Source: authors’ elaboration from data from the survey and the Mathlab software.

Figure 2 Relationship between climatic variables and proverbs, 1980 cycle (good year). 

The year of 1987 is considered as regular for the saying “Dry times in March mean rains in May”, while in the case of: “Water in May, bread for the whole year”, rain accumulation of 6.5 mm was observed in the first pentad of March 2 to 6, and total precipitation in the month of 8.0 mm, which represents rain scarcity. According to the saying, it was expected for there to be rain in May; however, it was not so. During May it rained a total of 16 mm, with the second and third pentad standing out, with 8.5 and 5.5 mm. The saying “Heat in early March is quite healthy for the country” was not fulfilled, although two maximum temperatures were present during the first date of March 2-6, with a temperature of 19.1 and the fifth pentad with 21.5 °C. In the case of “Rain in April, grains in the thousands”, it was not fulfilled since there was no rain scarcity during the month of April and an increase of 7.5 mm was observed during the sixth pentad, with total precipitation in the month of 12 mm. For “If Winter becomes Summer, Summer becomes Winter”, in the summer of June-July-August there were not conditions that showed hours of cold /frosts. With regards to the saying that includes water, there was a positive trend of accumulation per pentad. However, starting from the first pentad of the month of August, a decrease in rainfall of 17 mm was present, with a total of 29.5 mm. For “In September, either the fountains dry up or the bridges overflow”, another event was present, which is the midsummer heat or partial suspension of rainfall in the midst of summer; in this case it can be catalogued as “Dry midsummer heat” and during the month of September there was scarcity of rainfall- 80.5 mm. In the case of the proverb “El Cordonazo de San Francisco”, it coincides with the pentad from October 3 to 7; the first “agronomic” frost was present with a minimum temperature of 0.2 °C. For this year, two of the seven proverbs were fulfilled (Figure 3).

Source: authors’ elaboration from data from the survey and the Mathlab software.

Figure 3 Relationship between climatic variables and proverbs, 1987 cycle (regular year). 

In 2011 (bad year), concerning the proverbs “Dry times in March mean rains in May” and “May water, bread for the whole year”, rainfall scarcity was present, although there was an increase in the third and sixth pentad of 7.5 and 1.5 mm, respectively, with a total of 9 mm. In May the date of March 1115 stood out, with 45.5 mm and a total of 58.5 mm. For the saying “Heat in early March is quite healthy for the country”, an extreme value was present in the maximum temperatures where the sixth pentad on March 27-31 stands out, with a value of 28.6 °C. The proverb “Rain in April, grains in the thousands” was not fulfilled and the production was not what was expected, since a uniform distribution was observed, but the precipitation was not relevant. The contribution of rainfall during the month of April was present with an increase in the fourth pentad of 16-20, with 23.5 mm. For the proverb “If Winter becomes Summer, Summer becomes Winter”, in June-July-August there are no conditions that showed hours of cold/frosts. It can be observed that during July there was a decrease of precipitation in the date of 15-19, and although during the sixth pentad the rainfall increased to 26.5 mm, it was considered as a dry midsummer heat. During August there was also absence of rain in the first and second pentad, with a total rainfall of 42.5 mm. In the case of the proverb “In September, either the fountains dry up or the bridges overflow”, in September the maximum precipitation was August 29th to September 2nd with 53 mm and a total of 71 mm in the month, which is related to the year of bad production for maize cultivation. For the proverb “El Cordonazo de San Francisco”, the producers expect the first frosts at the end of September; however, in this case two agronomic frosts were present in the third and fifth pentad, that is, on September 8-12 and 18-22 of 4.8o°C and 5.8 °C, respectively. In our case it does not coincide, although a meteorological frost of -0.2 °C was observed in the sixth pentad, on October 23-27. In this year two of seven were fulfilled (Figure 4).

Source: authors’ elaboration from data from the survey and the Mathlab software.

Figure 4 Relationship between climatic variables and popular sayings, 2011 cycle (bad year). 

For the year 2013 (good year), in terms of the proverbs “Dry times in March mean rains in May” and “Water in May, bread for the whole year”, the total precipitation in March was 3.5 mm, value that represented scarce rainfall. What was expected in May only contributed in the fourth and fifth pentad, summing a total of 18 mm. For “Heat in early March is quite healthy for the country”, two extreme values in the maximum temperatures were present; the first one from March 25th to April 1st of 25.2 °C and the second in March 7-11 of 25 °C. Although both temperatures are within the average of the study site, it was fulfilled because it corresponded to a good year in maize yield. For “Rain in April, grains in the thousands” the distribution of precipitation was shown, with exception of the third pentad, highlighting the fifth one on April 21-25 with 21.5 mm and the sixth on April 26-30 with 18 mm, with a total of 53.0 mm. With this, the proverb was fulfilled, although there was scarcity in the first three pentads. For “If Winter becomes Summer, Summer becomes Winter”, in June-July-August the conditions were not present that showed hours of cold /frosts, although the value of the minimum temperature in June 5-9 of 7.6 °C and maximum of 25.6 °C was observed. For “In September, either the fountains dry up or the bridges overflow”, as consequence of a humid midsummer heat highlighted a maximum precipitation during the fifth pentad in September of 42 mm, with a total of 125 mm. For the proverb, “El Cordonazo de San Francisco”, it coincided and a decrease was seen in temperature from September 28th to October 2nd of 5 °C, considered as “agronomic” frost. Thus, five of the seven proverbs were fulfilled (Figure 5).

Source: authors’ elaboration from data from the survey and the Mathlab software.

Figure 5 Relationship between climatic variables and proverbs, 2013 cycle (good year). 

ConclusIons

There is partial agreement of the knowledge of maize producers with regards to the natural variability of the climate. In years with good yields, the highest number of proverbs that those surveyed mentioned was fulfilled, as in the case of 1980 and 2013, in contrast to the regular year (1987) and the bad year (2011). The weather is a changing system where the distribution of precipitation for the agricultural sector represents one of the variables that require specialized monitoring, due to the different scales at which rainfall is present. The fact that some proverbs were not fulfilled in this study is due to events of greater scale or to the interaction of more than two processes. The producers from those communities affirm that in the last 10 years the climate is uncertain and most cannot be fulfilled.

It is very important to highlight the synergy found between scientific and empirical knowledge.