Servicios Personalizados
Revista
Articulo
nueva página del texto (beta)
Español (pdf)
Artículo en XML
Referencias del artículo
Traducción automática
Enviar artículo por emailIndicadores
-
Citado por SciELO -
Accesos
Links relacionados
-
Similares en
SciELO
Compartir
Permalink
Política y gobierno
versión impresa ISSN 1665-2037
Polít. gob vol.14 no.2 Ciudad de México jul./dic. 2007
Notas de investigación
El Estudio Panel México 2006: midiendo el cambio de opiniones durante la campaña presidencial
Mexico 2006 Panel Study: Measuring Changes in Electoral Preferences During the Presidential Campaign
* Profesor del Departamento de Ciencia Política en el Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Room E53-470, 02139-4307, Cambridge, Massachusetts, Estados Unidos. Correo electrónico: clawson@mit.edu.
** Profesor del Departamento de Ciencia Política en el Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, Río Hondo núm. 1, Tizapán-San Ángel, México D. F. 01000, México. Correo electrónico: amoreno@itam.mx.
Esta nota de investigación presenta el Estudio Panel México 2006, un proyecto que permite estudiar la conducta electoral de los mexicanos. El estudio consiste en una encuesta tipo panel de tres rondas de entrevistas a 2,400 mexicanos adultos realizadas entre octubre de 2005 y julio de 2006, así como un extenso análisis de contenido de información noticiosa y anuncios políticos en televisión. En éste se registran cambios en las opiniones políticas de los mexicanos, los cuales pueden ser analizados a la luz de los eventos e información de las campañas presidenciales, así como del contexto político posterior a la elección. El estudio panel documenta qué tipo de votantes cambiaron su preferencia electoral y ofrece elementos para determinar por qué ocurrieron dichos cambios.
Palabras clave: elecciones; análisis de contenido; encuesta; México; estudio panel
This research note discusses the methods and key findings of the Mexico 2006 Panel Study, a multi-investigator project on Mexican voting behavior. This panel study consists of a three-wave panel survey of 2,400 Mexican adults between October 2005 and July 2006. It also includes an extensive content analysis of television news and advertisements. The Mexico 2006 Panel Study permits assessing the impact of events and information flows, along with post-electoral context, on the political attitudes of Mexicans. These surveys document which types of voters changed their electoral preferences during the campaign and offers a host of variables to explain why these changes occurred.
Key words: elections; content analysis; surveys; Mexico; panel study
Referencias bibliográficas
Achen, Christopher H. (1975), “Mass Political Attitudes and the Survey Response”, American Political Science Review, núm. 69, pp. 1218-1231. [ Links ]
Alvarez, R. Michael (1997), Information and Elections, Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press. [ Links ]
Alwin, Duane F. y Krosnick, Jon A. (1991), “The Reliability of Survey Attitude Measurement: The Influence of Question and Respondent Attributes”, Sociological Methods and Research, núm. 20, pp. 139-81. [ Links ]
Asher, Herbert B. (1974), “Some Consequences of Measurement Error in Surveys”, American Journal of Political Science, núm. 18 (mayo), pp. 469-485. [ Links ]
Bruhn, Kathleen y Greene, Kenneth (2007), “Optimismo moderado: Cómo podría desvanecerse el conflicto partidista mexicano”, Foreign Affairs en Español, vol. 7, núm. 1, pp. 132-143. [ Links ]
Catania, Joseph et al. (1996), “Effects of Interviewer Gender, Interviewer Choice, and Item Wording on Responses to Questions Concerning Sexual Behavior”, Public Opinion Quarterly, núm. 60, pp. 345-375. [ Links ]
Campbell, Angus; Converse, Philip E.; Miller, Warren E. y Stokes, Donald (1960), The American Voter, Nueva York, John Wiley & Sons. [ Links ]
Castañeda, Jorge G. y Morales, Marco A. (2007), “Looking to the Future”, Journal of Democracy, vol. 18, núm. 1, pp. 103-112. [ Links ]
Castaños, Fernando (2006), “2006: una contienda temática”, Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, núm. 2, pp. 91-121. [ Links ]
Davis, Darren W. (1997), “Nonrandom Measurement Error and Race-of-Interviewer Effects Among African Americans”, Public Opinion Quarterly, núm. 61, pp. 183-207. [ Links ]
De la Peña, Ricardo (2006), “Las encuestas en la elección presidencial de 2006: dos historias, una realidad”, Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, núm. 2, pp. 53-90. [ Links ]
Domínguez, Jorge I. y Lawson, Chappell (eds.) (2004), Mexico’s Pivotal Democratic Election: Campaigns, Voting Behavior, and the 2000 Presidential Race, Stanford, Stanford University Press. [ Links ]
Estrada, Luis y Poiré, Alejandro (2007), “Taught to Protest, Learning to Lose”, Journal of Democracy, vol. 18, núm. 1, pp. 73-87. [ Links ]
Eisenstadt, Todd A. (2007), “The Origins and Rationality of the ‘Legal vs. Legitimate’ Dichotomy Invoked in Mexico’s 2006 Post-Electoral Conflict”, PS: Political Science and Politics, vol. 40. núm. 1, pp. 39-43. [ Links ]
Feldman, Stanley (1988), “Structure and Consistency in Public Opinion: the Role of Core Beliefs and Values”, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 32, núm. 2, pp. 416-440. [ Links ]
Finkel, Steven E. (1993), “Re-examining the ‘Minimal Effects’ Model in Recent Presidential Campaigns”, Journal of Politics, vol. 55, pp. 1-21. [ Links ]
______ (1995), Causal Analysis with Panel Data. Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, vol. 105, Thousand Oaks, Sage. [ Links ]
Flores-Macías, Francisco y Lawson, Chappell (2006), “Mexican Demo-cracy and Its Discontents”, Review of Policy Research, vol. 23, núm. 2, pp. 287-293. [ Links ]
______ y Lawson, Chappell (2006), “Gender-of-Interviewer Effects on Gender-Sensitive Survey Items: Findings from a Household Survey in Mexico”, manuscrito en proceso de publicación. [ Links ]
Green, Donald P. y Palmquist, Bradley (1990), “Of Artifacts and Partisan Instability”, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 34, núm. 3, pp. 872-902. [ Links ]
______ y David H. Yoon (2002), “Reconciling Individual and Aggregate Evidence Concerning Partisan Stability: Applying Time-Series Models to Panel Survey Data”, Political Analysis, vol. 10, núm. 1, pp. 1-24. [ Links ]
Greene, Kenneth F. (2007), “El votante mediano y la regla de mayoría relativa para elegir presidente en México”, Política y Gobierno, vol. XIV, núm. 1, pp. 203-213. [ Links ]
Holbrook, Allyson; Green, Melanie y Jon Krosnick (2003), “Telephone versus Face-to-Face Interviewing of National Probability Samples with Long Questionnaires: Comparisons of Respondent Satisficing and Social Desirability Response Bias”, Public Opinion Quarterly, núm. 67, pp. 79-125. [ Links ]
Huddy, Leonie et al. (1997), “The Effect of Interviewer Gender on the Survey Response”, Political Behavior, núm. 19, pp. 197-220. [ Links ]
IFE (2006), Elecciones federales 2006: Encuestas y resultados electorales. México, Instituto Federal Electoral. [ Links ]
Johnson, M.; Phillips Shively, W. y Stein, R. M. (2002), “Contextual data and the study of elections and voting behavior: Connecting individuals to environments”, en Christopher Wlezien y Mark Franklin (eds.), The Future of Election Studies, Boston, Pergamon, pp. 63-76. [ Links ]
Johnson, Weldon y DeLamater, John (1976), “Response Effects in Sex Surveys”, Public Opinion Quarterly, núm. 40, pp. 165-181. [ Links ]
Kane, Emily y Macaulay, Laura (1993), “Interviewer Gender and Gender Attitudes”, Public Opinion Quarterly, núm. 57, pp. 1-28. [ Links ]
Kenski, Kate, y Romer, Daniel (2004),“Analysis of Panel Data”, en D. Romer, K. Kenski, P. Walkman, C. Adasiewicz, y K. H. Jamieson (comps.), Capturing Campaign Dynamics: The National Annenberg Election Survey, Oxford, Oxford University Press. [ Links ]
King, Gary; Murray, Christopher J.L.; Salomon, Joshua A. y Ajay Tandon (2003), “Enhancing the Validity and Cross-Cultural Comparability of Survey Research”, American Political Science Review, vol. 97, núm. 4, pp. 567-83. [ Links ]
Klesner, Joseph (2007), “The 2006 Mexican Elections: A Manifestation of a Divided Society?”, PS: Political Science and Politics, vol. 40. núm. 1, pp. 21-32. [ Links ]
Langston, Joy (2007), “The PRI’s 2006 Electoral Debacle?” PS: Political Science and Politics, vol. 40. núm. 1, pp. 21-25. [ Links ]
Lawson, Chappell (2006), “Preliminary findings from the Mexico 2006 Panel Study. Memo #1: Blue States and Yellow States”, manuscrito, http://web.mit.edi/polisci/research/mexico06/. [ Links ]
______ (2007), “How Did We Get Here? Mexican Democracy After the 2006 Elections”, PS: Political Science and Politics, vol. 40. núm. 1, pp. 45-48. [ Links ]
______ y McCann, James A. (2005), “Television News, Mexico’s 2000 Elections, and Media Effects in Emerging Democracies”, British Journal of Political Science, núm. 35, pp. 1-30. [ Links ]
Lazarsfeld, Paul; Berelson, Bernard y Gaudet, Hazel (1944), The People’s Choice, Nueva York, Columbia University Press. [ Links ]
Lund, Daniel (2006), “La candidatura de Andrés Manuel López Obrador: hacia un estudio de caso en la política electoral”, Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, núm. 2, pp. 11-28. [ Links ]
Markus, Gregory B. (1979), Analizing Panel Data, Sage University Paper 18, Newbury Park, Sage Publications. [ Links ]
McCann, James A. y Lawson, Chappell (2003), “An Electorate Adrift? Public Opinion and the Quality of Democracy in Mexico”, Latin American Research Review, vol. 38, pp. 60-81. [ Links ]
Moreno, Alejandro (1999), “Campaign Awareness and Voting in the 1997 Mexican Congressional Elections”, en Jorge I. Domínguez y Alejandro Poiré (eds.), Toward Mexico’s Democratization: Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Public Opinion, Nueva York, Routledge. [ Links ]
______ (2003), El votante mexicano: Democracia, actitudes políticas y conducta electoral, México, Fondo de Cultura Económica. [ Links ]
______ (2006), “Estabilidad y consistencia ideológica en la opinión pública mexicana”, Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, núm. 1, pp. 11-34. [ Links ]
______ (2007), “The 2006 Mexican Presidential Election: The Economy, Oil Revenues, and Ideology”, PS: Political Science and Politics, vol. 40, núm. 1, pp. 15-19. [ Links ]
______ y Martínez, María Teresa (2006), “Información política e imagen de candidatos en las campañas presidenciales de 2006: Un modelo explicativo del cambio de opinión a nivel individual”, Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, núm. 2, pp. 29-51. [ Links ]
______ y Méndez, Patricia (2007), “La identificación partidista en las elecciones presidenciales de 2000 y 2006 en México”, Política y Gobierno, vol. XIV, núm. 1, pp. 43-75. [ Links ]
Page, Benjamín, y Shapiro, Robert (1992), The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans’ Policy Preferences, Chicago, University of Chicago Press. [ Links ]
Patterson, Thomas E. y McClure, Robert (1976), The Unseeing Eye: The Myth of Television Power in National Elections, Nueva York, Putnam. [ Links ]
Price, Vincent y Zaller, John (1993), “Who Gets the News? Alternative Measures of News Reception and Their Implications for Research”, Public Opinion Quarterly, núm. 57, pp. 133-64. [ Links ]
Rabinowitz, George y Macdonald, Stuart (1989), “A Directional Theory of Voting”, American Political Science Review, núm. 83, pp. 93-122. [ Links ]
Riffe, Daniel; Lacy, Stephen; Nagovan, Jason y Larry Burkum (1996), “The Effectiveness of Simple and Stratified Random Sampling in Broadcast News Content Analysis”, Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, vol. 73 núm. 1, pp. 159-168. [ Links ]
Sarsfield, Rodolfo (2007), “La racionalidad de las preferencias políticas en México: Estudios recientes de opinión pública y comportamiento electoral”, Política y Gobierno, vol. XIV, núm. 1, pp. 143-171. [ Links ]
Schedler, Andreas (2007), “The Mobilization of Distrust”, Journal of Democracy, vol 18, núm. 1, pp. 88-102. [ Links ]
Schickler, Eric y Green, Donald (1997), “The Stability of Party Identification in Western Democracies”, Comparative Political Studies, núm. 30, pp. 450-83. [ Links ]
Starr, Pamela (2006), “Challenges for a Postelection Mexico”, Council Special Report, núm. 17-noviembre, Nueva York, Council on Foreign Relations. [ Links ]
Wooldridge, Jeffrey (2002), Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, Cambridge, MIT Press. [ Links ]
Wiley, David E. y Wiley, James A. (1970), “The Estimation of Measurement Error in Panel Data”, American Sociological Review, vol. 35, núm. 1, pp. 112-117. [ Links ]
Zaller, John R. (1992), The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, Nueva York, Cambridge University Press. [ Links ]
Recibido: Enero de 2007
Este es un artículo publicado en acceso abierto bajo una licencia Creative Commons
