The migratory and cross-border context of Tijuana

The border dynamics between Mexico and the usa cannot be fully understood without taking into account the phenomenon of migration. Currently, the flow of Mexican migrants to the usa is very different from that of a few decades ago, when it was mainly composed of young men looking for agricultural work. In recent years, many other groups have migrated for various purposes, making migration a much more complex phenomenon than in the past.

There are two demographic-migratory processes-contemporary and temporary-that are related to the northern Mexican border and that must be considered because they shape the cultural identity of the societies that experience them. The first is associated with the increase in the number of international immigrants who have returned to border municipalities of Mexico since 2017 (Inegi, 2020; ^{Masferrer & Roberts, 2012}). The border has ceased to be only the magnet of internal migration; it has also become a magnet of return migration from the second half of this century (^{Canales, 2012}; ^{Vargas Valle, 2015}), due in part to the real estate bubble, which burst in 2008 in the U.S., leading to a global financial crisis,⁵ and reinforced by the emergence of an anti-immigrant climate in that country during the administration of President Donald Trump.

The second process involves immigration to Tijuana from other parts of the country, in addition to immigration to Central America, South America and the Caribbean, through which the historical growth of the city is explained, to a large extent, and by which it enjoys high multiculturalism. In this regard, the migration crisis that occurred in 2016, when nearly 3 000 Haitians arrived in Tijuana, and during 2018, when more than 6 000 Central American immigrants arrived seeking asylum in the usa⁶ (^{El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, 2019}), stand out. In this regard, data from the Inegi intercensal survey (Inegi, 2015) indicate that 47% of the population of Tijuana in 2015 was nonnative.

^{Kandel and Massey (2002}) argue that in some parts of Mexico, migration to the usa is seen as a step toward maturity; the action is socially approved, and whoever does it is recognized as a responsible and visionary person. This desire spreads through the social environment and by observing the role played by those who have done it, who, upon returning, usually show a change in their economic circumstances, thus strengthening the perception in young people that investment in education is not as profitable as migration due to the lack of being qualified for the positions they are likely to fill, causing young people to reduce their academic effort. The authors find that parents’ desires for their children to live in the usa is generally not related to educational continuity; they also find that the intention to work beyond the border of high school students is the opposite of their desire to continue to study in Mexico.

The actions through which migrants forge and maintain simultaneous social relations between their society of origin and that of settlement (^{Glick Schiller et al., 1995}) are a manifestation of “transnationality”⁷ (^{Zúñiga & Reyes, 2006}). Many times, these migrants settle in areas close to the border, either to not lose emotional ties with the country of origin or because they already have family or friends in those areas or, in many cases, due to budgetary limitations.⁸ When the daily lives of these families or communities depend on constant interconnections across an international border and their members are incorporated into the economy, daily life patterns and political institutions of both countries mark their public identity (^{Glick Schiller et al., 1992}) with what is facing cross-border families or communities.

Migration and education: some theoretical and empirical results

For ^{Vargas Valle (2015}), there are forces found in the relationship between migration and education whose joint effect on the younger population is still uncertain. On the one hand, migration could generate economic gains that make the exclusive dedication to studies possible (^{Taylor, 1987}), but on the other hand, it could bring social capital within the household to a threshold below that which guarantees academic success (^{Booth, 1995}). Likewise, it is possible that the phenomenon has a negative effect on the educational aspirations of young people; when at home, the economic and cultural benefits of working in the USA are overestimated (^{Kandel & Massey, 2002}). For ^{Vargas-Valle and Glick (2021}), the educational and migratory aspirations of high school students in Tijuana are sensitive to the cross-border experience and to the level of social capital that the connection with the United States represents in terms of citizenship, family, and mastery of English or cultural identification. Additionally, students with an education and other cross-border ties, under certain circumstances, are more likely than others to aspire to a university degree but also to migrate or get a job on the other side of the border.⁹

In border cities such as Tijuana, considered receptors of tourism and migratory flows, the educational structure evolves alongside with geopolitical and economic phenomena. In 2008, the proportion of students in basic, high school and higher education was 47%, 38% and 15%, respectively (Inegi, 2010), and by 2018, these indicators had changed to 69%, 17% and 14%, respectively (Sistema Educativo Estatal de Baja California [seebc], 2018); by 2021, they were 71%, 15% and 14%.¹⁰ Although this does not allow establishing for certain that high school education is the most sensitive to the environment, it is an indication that this educational level presents the greatest challenge, with a goal of increasing retention in the coming years, not only because of the current magnitude of the issue and its significant decline in recent years but also because of the degree of change from the previous level, which continued to decrease in 2021.

Studies such as those by ^{Hanson and Woodruff (2003}) and ^{Borraz (2005}) suggest a potential positive effect of migration on the education of the youngest in cases where the mother’s education is low and on households where remittances are received; however, their results are focused on rural communities. In this regard, for ^{Nobles (2011}), ties with migrant parents are positively correlated with school performance, which mitigates the educational costs of family separation. For his part, ^{Antman (2011}) finds that minors who have a migrant father spend less time on schoolwork in the absence of a male behavior pattern. This is because the aspirations of the minor end up being related to labor migration or a perceived lack of support, which generates psychological costs. The author concludes that the negative effects of paternal migration could be greater than the benefits that can be achieved through remittances.

^{McKenzie and Rapoport (2011}) find that migration negatively affects the academic achievement of adolescents in rural areas and could reduce the chances of completing secondary education by up to 22%; however, this effect is mitigated with remittances that relax restrictions on investment in education. In this sense, ^{Kandel and Kao (2000}) find that remittances sufficiently relax the economic pressures of the households that receive them and that minors have a greater dedication to study; however, this effect occurs only until these people acquire autonomy in decision-making during adolescence, which is when they can be most strongly influenced by the occupational and educational activity of their relatives and acquaintances. Their results also show that young people with better qualifications and those whose parents have a professional occupation have less interest in looking for work outside the country; however, for students who have repeated a school grade, interest increases.

^{Coubès and González Ramírez (2011}) study the interrelation between school and work for the young population of Tijuana and find that those born outside the state of Baja California, in a greater proportion than the locals, combine studying with working or work exclusively. Additionally, they identify that only 48% of those who complete basic education reach the high school level. The authors state that the labor market of Tijuana’s youth is more accessible than that of the rest of Mexico but also of lower skill.

^{Vargas Valle (2015}) analyzes the educational continuity of young people in urban areas of the northern border of Mexico, and the participants had the following two characteristics: born in the USA and share a home with people living in Mexico who work in the usa. The author finds that the country of birth is more associated with level of education than having relatives who live in Mexico and work in the usa. Additionally, young people who live with someone with this cross-border activity could have advantages regarding completing basic and high school education but not a college education.

Students living in Mexico but who were born and study in the usa increase their human capital-specific to the usa-and, with it, the probability of being able to find a well-paid job north of the border (^{Orraca et al., 2017}). Another type of cross-border tie occurs for those who, even having been born in Mexico, frequently cross the international border for tourism, business or health purposes, supported by their high levels of income and constituted to a large extent by what ^{Sarabia (2015}) calls cosmopolitans of the Global South, i.e., a privileged and mobile class composed of members of the middle and upper classes. These characteristics mean that households with cross-border ties are not entirely comparable to those of immigrants (^{Orraca et al., 2017}).

Table 1 shows the differences in importance that young people give to higher education on both sides of the border; the differences are discussed in light of the cross-border perspective of the Mexican side.

As seen in Table 1, the percentage of young people who give high importance to university studies and who strongly agree that dedication to school is a way to achieve a better career is higher in Tijuana than in San Diego. A significant difference between the two population groups occurs with the statement that the classes taken in high school contribute to shaping the future because in San Diego, up to 35% of the students disagree or strongly disagree, and on the Mexican side, only 14% of the students disagree or strongly disagree. Additionally, there is a notable discrepancy in the opinion of students in relation to their parent’s desire for them to go to college, a statement with which 61% strongly agree in Tijuana, compared to 49% in San Diego. The hierarchical ordering of the responses was similar between both locations, and there was no significant difference when they were asked about the role played by the college in achieving a good job. However, the variability in the responses (as a measure of polarization) was always greater for students in Tijuana.

The greater importance of higher education in the perceptions of young people in Tijuana could be related to what was noted by ^{Marmolejo and León (2000}), i.e., in Mexico, this educational level is seen as the basis of a process of social transformation and self-improvement with strong components of aspirations, and in the usa, it is perceived as an investment (not accessible to all) that increases the probability of obtaining a better income in the future.

Information sources

The data were obtained from the Mexican Migration Field Research Program (mmfrp) 2015-2016 of the University of California at San Diego in collaboration with El Colegio de la Frontera Norte and the Autonomous University of Baja California.¹² The sample consisted of 4 074 high school students between 14 and 17 years old enrolled in 63 schools in Tijuana and San Diego. Of these, 2 004 are students living in Tijuana, among whom 207 were identified as having experience with cross-border ties, i.e., having studied, lived or been born in the U.S. or having or had a nuclear relative living in the usa. The participants were selected by random sampling weighted in two stages: first by school and then by classroom. Although this study focuses on young people in Tijuana, for some indicators, brief comparisons are made with their peers in San Diego.

Among the sample in the present study, 5% of young people between 14 and 17 years old living in Tijuana had been born in the usa, increasing to 39% for the subset with transnational ties or experience. Five percent had some academic experience in the USA, and 8% had lived there for at least one month. According to ^{Rocha Romero and Orraca Romano (2018}), the majority of students who live in Mexico and study in the United States were born in the United States; this is observed for the basic educational level (85.1%), high school (74.6%) and higher education (64.8%). However, the majority of residents in Mexico born in the usa do not study on the other side of the border due to encountering some type of obstacle related to the costs of education, family income, English proficiency, academic achievement or even fatigue from continuously crossing the border.¹³

Qualitative response regression model

Models in which the dependent variable is qualitative usually aim to determine the probability that a certain event will occur. A simple linear regression model is represented as follows:

whereY is a categorical response variable, which, for quantification purposes, is associated with the values 0 and 1, according to the interests of the model. In addition,α is the intercept,βi (1,…,n) are the estimated coefficients of the independent or explanatory variablesX, which indicate the magnitude of the effect on the dependent variable, andu is the disturbance or error term. Expression 1 can be interpreted in probabilistic terms as a discrete choice model (^{Gujarati & Porter, 2010}). However, because there is no guarantee that when obtaining Y^ by ordinary least squares the estimators of the probability of eventY occurring givenX meet the proposed condition, it is advisable to transform the model in such a way that the predictions fall in the interval0,1.

In this regard, the logit model derives probabilities in terms of a logistic distribution function, as follows:

whereZi=α+βiXi+u, andPi is the probability that the event occurs; therefore, the probability that it does not occur is1-Pi, which can also be represented as follows:

Therefore,

The probability ratio in favor of the event occurring with respect to it not occurring is Pi/(1-Pi). By taking the logarithm of the previous equation, we have

which is the model to be estimated. The logarithm of the probability ratio is linear for the parameters X andβ, andX will depend on the specifications in question.

Description of variables

The explanatory variables used were selected based on ^{Kandel and Kao (2000}), ^{Antman (2011}) and ^{Vargas Valle (2015}). In total, 20 independent variables are included: six demographic and socioeducational variables (DSEV), eight migratory variables (MIVA) and six commitment, self-motivation and family support variables (CMSV). Although the DSEV, MIVA and CMSV categories are not exhaustive or mutually exclusive and the variables that compose them are only proxies of the theoretical dimensions they intend to measure,¹⁴ they do make it possible to differentiate the nature of aspirations. Table 2 provides descriptions of the explanatory variables, their category and the form that the answers can take.

In this study, the dependent variable, Y, refers to the individual’s aspiration to attend college;Y=0 indicates that the attribute is not present, andY=1 indicates that the attribute is present.

Descriptive statistical analysis

Table 3 shows the percentage distribution of the nonquantitative independent variables that will be used in the inferential statistical analysis as a function of the dependent variable, which characterizes the 2 004 young people in Tijuana, differentiated by educational aspirations.

According to ^{Giorguli Saucedo et al. (2010}), a large family can influence young people’s intention to attend college. In this regard, as seen in Table 3, having more than two siblings is more frequent among students who do not aspire to go to college; however, if they have attended college, they may serve as an academic example, actually increasing interest in studying.

Additionally, it is evident that parental education level is higher among the student population intending to go to college. Among the students who wanted to pursue a bachelor's degree, up to 46% of their mothers and 52% of their fathers had at least a high school education; these percentages were 26% and 33%, respectively, among students without such aspirations. Together, the proportion of young people who have high English proficiency among those who want to go to college is more than double that among those who do not have such aspirations; in any case, the percentage does not reach 15%.

Based on the distribution of the responses, many of the migratory variables, such as whether one of the parents was born or lived in the United States, having relatives in the usa or having studied, lived or been born in the usa, a priori, do not distinguish between an individual’s intention to achieve higher education. Overall, the population wanting to go to college has greater ties to the U.S. than do those who do not have this purpose, except in terms of receiving remittances, which is more frequent among young people who do not aspire to attend college. In fact, remittances are usually used for food, clothing, housing, health and debt payments rather than education (^{Fundación bbva Bancomer, A. C. & Consejo Nacional de Población [Conapo] 2016}) and are challenging to use as productive investments (^{Durand et al., 1996}).

Those who aspire to attend college identify less with Mexico and more with both countries than do those who state that they are not interested in pursuing higher education. Additionally, among those who aspire to go to college, 32% see themselves working in Mexico, and 30% see themselves in both countries; these values are 53% and 21% for those who do not aspire to attend college. Most potential college students do not think their parents are responsible for ensuring their homework is completed. Interestingly, although there is agreement among parents with regard to supporting their children when they want to go to college, there is also agreement in the sense of supporting their work interests.

Regarding how Tijuana’s youth views higher education, when distinguishing between those who have transnational ties or experience (207, equivalent to 10% of those living in Tijuana) and those who do not, there is no significant difference in the importance that both groups give to attending college (66% give great importance). However, the young population with transnational ties has more clarity regarding their intention to go to an American university,¹⁵ i.e., 70% of this subset compared to 54% of those who do not meet these criteria. The above findings indicate the existence of a relationship between decisions regarding educational training and the degree of transnational linkage.

Regarding sense of belonging, 23% of young people with transnational ties identify more with the U.S. culture than with the Mexican culture, and 8% of those who do not have such connections identify more with the U.S. culture than with the Mexican culture. Likewise, 42% of these transnational youth identify with both countries, compared with 27% of nontransnational youth. This is an indicator with different hierarchical ordering between the two groups. For transnationals the order is both countries, followed by Mexico, the USA and neither of the two; for nontransnationals, the order is Mexico, followed by both, neither and, the USA.

Inferential statistical analysis

With the objective of exploring the relationship between the independent and dependent variables (the higher education aspirations of young people in Tijuana), four specifications of the logit model were estimated, i.e., sp1, sp2, sp3 and sp4, using scenarios with different demographic and socioeducational (DSEV) and migratory (MIVA) conditions and associated with family commitment, motivation and support (CMSV)¹⁶ (see Table 1).

All the estimations rely on the DSEV variables to determine whether, independent of the effect of family composition and their academic background, the migratory context or the commitment, motivation and support of the family are important. sp1 and sp2 rely on the MIVA variables, and sp3 and sp4 rely significantly on the CMSV variables.

In terms of the MIVA variables, proposal sp1 considers the origin of individuals, school attendance in the U.S., and whether or not they receive remittances and have close relatives in the U.S.; sp2 includes school attendance in the U.S., the place where the student has lived and where his or her nuclear family lives or has lived. The proposals sp3 and sp4 differ in terms of the CMSV variables: sp3 includes aspects of commitment and motivation (hours dedicated to school, the country with which one identifies and where one sees herself/himself working in the future), and sp4 incorporates the variables related to the support of at least one of the parents with respect to the academic and professional future of their child.

Regarding the significance of the marginal effects¹⁷ for the DSEV variables, as seen in Table 4, age is significant and negative, indicating that the passage of time reduces the incentives to pursue higher education, perhaps due, in part, to the greater need to contribute to family income (^{Zúñiga et al., 2008}). Additionally, having siblings in college, a father with higher education and a high command of English were significant and positive in all the estimations in which they were included, ultimately increasing the intention to pursue higher education (measured as probability) by up to 3.8%, 7.0% and 5.2%, respectively. Mother’s education level was significant only in some tests and was mostly associated with high school education (especially sp2 and sp3).¹⁸ This could be the product of a patriarchal culture, which is still predominant and under which, on the one hand, fathers continue to be the main references for professional development and, on the other hand, mothers who are professionals face opportunity costs of an unpaid workload related to dedication to care and family.

With respect to the MIVA variables, receiving remittances was significant and had negative effects on aspirations to attend college. Studies such as those by ^{Durand et al. (1996}), ^{Giorguli and Serratos (2009}), and ^{Fundación bbva Bancomer, A. C. & Conapo (2016}) have identified that the conversion of remittances into productive investments is not automatic; these were found to discourage school continuity due to the adjusted perception of the value and cost of education when faced with the possibility of labor migration.¹⁹

Regarding the CMSV variables, in line with the results reported by ^{Antman (2011}), each hour of weekly academic dedication outside of school increases the aspirations to continue to university studies by 1.4%. However, the country with which the person identifies the most or the one in which he or she sees himself or herself building their profession do not seem to be significantly related to academic intentions (which contrasts with the results of the chi-square test of independence for each variable in Table 3).

Finally, the three variables related to parental support for this potential decision by young people were significant; however, they had different signs. Ensuring that homework is done²⁰ and agreeing with going to college had positive effects on aspirations (3.8% and 6.2%, respectively), and the effect of encouraging plans other than attending college was negative (-6.2%). These findings indicate that the commitment and support received by the family are relevant in how aspirations are shaped. Although young people with university aspirations report greater reconciliation between their vision and that of their parents, in both academic and work matters (see Table 3), there is a compensatory effect by which supporting work counteracts the effect of academic support.

When comparing the  R2 values for the regressions, the sp4 model, which consists of mainly demographic, socioeducational and family support variables, is the one that best explains the behavior of the dependent variable. Overall, this indicator is relatively low; however, the conventional measure of goodness of fit is not usually especially high in binary regressions (^{Gujarati & Porter, 2010}). A second measure of fit, the chi-square test, corroborates that the sp4 model is the most appropriate (Table 4).