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Investigación económica

versión impresa ISSN 0185-1667

Inv. Econ vol.64 no.254 México oct./dic. 2005

 

Articles

La dinámica de las expectativas racionales: una crítica metodológica *

Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique

Donald A.R. George* 

Les Oxley** 

* Universidad de Edimburgo, Reino Unido <d.george@ed.ac.uk>

** Universidad de Canterbury, Nueva Zelanda y Universidad de Western Australia.

RESUMEN

Este artículo analiza los modelos macroeconómicos de expectativas racionales (ER), desde una perspectiva metodológica. Propone una propiedad particular, la rob11stez, la cual debería ser considerada como una parte necesaria de los modelos científicamente válidos en economía, pero que se encuentra ausente en muchos de los modelos macro de ER. Para restablecer dicha propiedad muchos macroeconomistas han recurrido a supuestos detallados e inverosímiles, los cuales llevan sus modelos más allá de las sim­ ples expectativas racionales. El texto centra su atención en los problemas inherentes a la técnica de linealización local y concluye proponiendo el uso de modelos no lineales, analizados globalmente.

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses RE macromodels from the methodological perspective. It proposes a particular property, robustness, which should be considered a necessary feature of scientifically valid models in economics, but which is absent from many RE macromodels. To restore this property many macroeconomists resort to detailed and implausible assumptions, which take their models a long way from simple rational expectations. The paper draws attention to the problems inherent in the technique of local linearisation and concludes by proposing the use of nonlinear models, analysed globally.

JEL Classification: E00

Texto completo disponible sólo en PDF

Full text available only in PDF format

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Traducción. Felipe Blanco. Artículos precursores de éste, fueron presentados en la London School of Economics, Australian National University, European University Institute, y Uppsala University.

Recibido: Febrero de 2005; Aprobado: Junio de 2005

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