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Geofísica internacional
On-line version ISSN 2954-436XPrint version ISSN 0016-7169
Geofís. Intl vol.44 n.4 Ciudad de México Oct./Dec. 2005
Articles
The forecasting of the 1995 Colima-Jalisco, Mexico, earthquake (Mw = 8): A case history
1Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, D.F, 04510, México Email: david@ollin.igeofcu.unam.mx
In 1995 the Colima-Jalisco region (103.7-106°W) was identified as a zone with a high probability of occurrence of a large earthquake (Ms ≥ 7.5) before the end of 1996. This forecast was based on results from pattern recognition and from studies on seismic gaps and Weibull distribution for the recurrence of strong earthquakes along the Mexican subduction zone. On October 9, 1995, an event of magnitude M w = 8 occurred within the forecast area. A detailed examination of the seismicity preceding the mainshock reveals that most moderate earthquakes (Ms ≥ 5.5) occurred outside the rupture area. They were located mostly onshore or trenchward. This seismicity pattern changed after the great Michoacan 1985 earthquake (Ms = 8.1) which took place to the southeast but not adjacent to the 1995 rupture. The diagnosed event may have been the result of a combination of change in seismicity pattern followed by quiescence. The forecasting of this mainshock suggests the importance of detailed studies of historical seismicity together with methods of pattern recognition to determine areas with a high probability for the occurrence of a large earthquake within a specified time interval.
KEY WORDS: Earthquake forecast; seismic pattern recognition; Colima-Jalisco; 1995 earthquake; earthquake prediction; Algorithm M8
En 1995 la región de Colima-Jalisco (103.7-106°W) fue identificada como una zona con una alta probabilidad para la ocurrencia de un gran sismo (Ai ≥7.5) antes de finalizar el año 1996. Este pronóstico se basó en resultados obtenidos del método de reconocimiento de patrones y de estudios de brecha sísmica y la distribución Weibull para la recurrencia de grandes temblores a lo largo de la zona de subducción mexicana. El 9 de octubre de 1995, un evento de magnitud M w = 8 ocurrió dentro del área pronosticada. Un examen detallado de la sismicidad que precedió este sismo revela que la mayoría de los temblores moderados (Ms ≥ 5.5) ocurrieron fuera del área de ruptura. Estos eventos fueron localizados hacia la costa o hacia la trinchera. El patrón de sismicidad cambió después del terremoto de 1985 (Ms = 8.1) el cual ocurrió al sureste, pero no adyacente a la ruptura de 1995. El diagnóstico de este evento pudo haber sido el resultado de una combinación de cambios del patrón de sismicidad seguido de quietud sísmica. Este pronóstico sugiere la importancia de estudios detallados de la sismicidad histórica junto con métodos de reconocimiento de patrones para determinar aquellas áreas con una alta probabilidad de ocurrencia de grandes sismos dentro de un intervalo de tiempo específico.
PALABRAS CLAVE: Pronóstico sísmico; reconocimiento de patrones sísmicos; sismo de Colima-Jalisco; 1995; predicción sísmica; Algoritmo M8.
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Received: February 21, 2005; Accepted: June 26, 2005
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