Resumen

BOJANIC, Antonio N.. Inflación e incertidumbre inflacionaria en Bolivia. El trimestre econ [online]. 2013, vol.80, n.318, pp.401-426. ISSN 2448-718X.

This paper estimates a GARCH-M model of inflation for Bolivia and investigates its linkages with resulting measures of inflation uncertainty. Utilizing a consumer price index constructed by combining six different official indices, the main findings are as follows: inflation and inflation uncertainty have both declined steadilysince the late 1980s, when the hyperinflation period finally ended. For the period between 1937 and 2011 -and for other sub-periods within 1937-2011- inflation has a significant and positive effect on uncertainty, supporting the hypothesis formulated separately by Friedman and Ball. An implication of this finding is that the Central Bank of Bolivia can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate.

Palabras llave : inflación; incertidumbre inflacionaria; modelos GARCH.

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