Abstract

JIMENEZ, Félix. Producto potencial, fuentes del crecimiento y productividad en la economía peruana (1950-2008). El trimestre econ [online]. 2011, vol.78, n.312, pp.913-940. ISSN 2448-718X.

This paper presents a procedure for estimating potential output and the total factor productivity (TFP), to be applied to Peruvian economy. On the basis of potential output series the economic cycle is then calculated to demonstrate that the output gap includes the TFP gap and the unemployment gap (natural rate and actual rate on unemployment). Moreover, it contrasts the sources of growth and productivity behavior during the import substitution era and the period of neoliberal policies. On the other hand, it shows that productivity changes are associated to the evolution of capital labor ratio and efficiency of investment. The empirical evidence indicates that, in the last decades, there weren't modernization processes with significant impacts on the Peruvian economy as a whole.

Keywords : crecimiento económico; productividad; producto potencial; brecha del producto; capital; inversión; empleo; desempleo; Perú.

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