Resumo

ANGULO PALMERO, Jesús Humberto  e  GUILLERMO PEON, Sylvia Beatriz. Análisis del crecimiento en las manufacturas mexicanas. El problema de los datos perdidos (1929-1934). El trimestre econ [online]. 2008, vol.75, n.298, pp.471-518.  Epub 20-Nov-2020. ISSN 2448-718X.

The present paper focuses on the potential bias in growth estimation generated by the problem of missing data (or data truncation) due to changes in census survey policy. The analysis will help to ascertain which sub-sectors in manufacturing were experiencing growth to show evidence supporting the hypothesis of a positive growth rate in manufacturing as a whole during the period 1929-1934. We particularly analyze the performance of the Mexican manufacturing industry at sub-sector level of disaggregation and during the period 1929-1934 considering that census policy was not homogeneous for the two censuses of interest (and for subsequent ones). When any data set is truncated, this can generate bias in the estimation process. However, the bias in estimates based on these data sets will depend on how important the proportion of missing data is. Hence, one of the main tasks on this paper is to examine how important the missing data problem is for each sector of Mexican manufacturing in order to shed light on the reliability of Value Added growth rates estimates which are calculated in this paper.

Palavras-chave : crecimiento del valor agregado; crecimiento de la industria manufacturera mexicana; problema de datos perdidos.

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