Resumo

ALAMILLA-GACHUZ, Idalid; CERVANTES-SIUROB, María del Carmen  e  LENGYEL-ALMOS, Krisztina E.. Economic risks in Mexico according to official reports. Anál. econ. [online]. 2021, vol.36, n.91, pp.155-180.  Epub 21-Abr-2021. ISSN 2448-6655.

The present article analyzes the macroeconomic risks identified in the annual consultations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued between 2017 and 2019 on Mexico, which indicated weakness in the national economy to face external shocks. Three documents from the IMF are compared to detect changes during a key period in the country, due to the political and economic alternation of 2018. The risks presented in 2019 by the IMF are then validated with the official reports of the Mexican economic authorities (Banxico, SHCP) and with similar documents from other international organizations (OCDE, World Bank and BBVA), looking for similarities and differences between them. The main findings indicate the existence of signs of Mexican economic weakness, as well as the existence of convergences (low growth, low levels of investment and consumption, and uncertainty about the new fiscal policies) and some divergences (the approach of each organization). Finally, due to the global health and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, recent reports agree that there is an environment of intrinsic uncertainty present in any economic crisis, as they do not know the start, end and magnitude of the impact that the event will have on the Mexican economy.

Palavras-chave : economic fluctuations; macroeconomic policy; comparative fiscal policy; monetary policy; E32; E6; E63; E52.

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